از خرید و فروش تسلیحات تا انتقال دانش و فناوری
محرمانه یا آشکارا؟
علی روغنگران
هفته گذشته محمدجواد ظریف به مسکو سفر کرده بود، ظریف در این سفر تاکید کرد که ایران به گفتگو با روسیه در زمینه همکاری دفاعی ادامه می‌دهد. او در خصوص قرارداد‌های نظامی میان تهران و مسکو گفت: «ایران و روسیه مذاکرات بسیار جدی در این خصوص انجام دادند و ما به این گفتگوها ادامه می‌دهیم.»
وزیر خارجه جزئیات بیشتری در این باره اعلام نکرد. مذاکره درباره خرید و فروش تسلیحات همیشه موضوعی حساس است و دولت‌ها تلاش می‌کنند گفتگوها در اینباره محرمانه بماند. 27 مهر ماه تحریم تسلیحاتی ایران در قالب برجام و قطعنامه 2231 شورای امنیت پایان می‌یابد. هر چند که ایالات متحده آمریکا برای ادامه تحریم ایران مکانیسم ماشه را فعال کرده است، اما نه اروپا و نه روسیه و چین و دیگر اعضای شورای امنیت این اقدام آمریکا را به رسمیت نشناخته‌اند. در این شرایط با پایان تحریم تسلیحاتی، ایران می‌تواند وارد مبادلات تسلیحاتی با دیگر کشور‌ها شود. در کنار روسیه، چین هم در موقعیت مناسبی برای مذاکره با ایران در اینباره است. چین در دو سال اخیر محافظه‌کاری را کنار گذاشته و با صراحت بیشتری از ایران حمایت می‌کند. از طرف دیگر ایران و چین به دنبال یک توافق جامع 25 ساله هستند که احتمالا مسائل نظامی و مبادلات تسلیحاتی جزئی مهم از این توافق باشد. مایک پمپئو وزیر امور خارجه آمریکا سه شنبه گذشته تهدید کرد که کشورش در صورت فروش تسلیحات چین و روسیه به ایران، آن‌ها را تحریم خواهد کرد. از طرف دیگر ایران در سال‌های اخیر پیشرفت زیادی در تولید تسلیحات نظامی داشته و حالا می‌تواند به عنوان یک صادر کننده عمده در این حوزه ورود پیدا کند. غیر از کشور‌های دوست و همسایه، کشور‌هایی همچون ونزوئلا می‌توانند مقصد تسلیحات ایرانی باشد. در همین راستا نیکولاس مادورو رئیس جمهور ونزوئلا ضمن تاکید بر تولید تسلیحاتی بومی گفت: «ما به همکاری‌ها با روسیه، چین و ایران ادامه خواهیم داد. ما همچنان از سوی این کشور‌ها کمک‌های مرتبط با امور تکنولوژی، تسلیحاتی و راهبردی دریافت خواهیم کرد و همزمان در راستای مستقل بودن نیز حرکت می‌کنیم.»
آمریکا علاوه بر اینکه به کشور‌های مختلف برای قطع ارتباط با ایران فشار وارد می‌کند، عملا کشور‌هایی مانند روسیه و چین را تهدید هم می‌کند. تهدید برای روسیه وچین مسئله‌ای حیثیتی و غیرقابل قبول است. همین موضوع ممکن است باعث شود که روسیه و چین به سمت آشکارسازی بخشی از معاملات تسلیحاتی خود با ایران بروند و آن را در چهارچوب رویارویی خود با آمریکا تعریف کنند
به این ترتیب دایره شرکای تسلیحاتی ایران می‌تواند بزرگتر از روسیه، چین و کشور‌های همسایه باشند. البته در شرایط فعلی به رغم اینکه کشور‌های اروپایی با آمریکا برای تحریم‌های تسلیحاتی ایران همراهی نکرده‌اند، اما همانند گذشته عملا گامی برای فروش تسلیحات به ایران برنخواهند داشت؛ بنابراین ایران نمی‌تواند شرکایی در بین کشور‌های غربی پیدا کند. در نتیجه به سمت کشور‌هایی همچون روسیه و چین می‌رود. روسیه در زمره کشور‌هایی به شمار می‌رود که در حوزه تسلیحات دفاعی و تهاجمی جزو بزرگترین صادر کنندگان و برترین‌ها از منظر تکنولوژی به حساب می‌آید، در این شرایط ایران می‌خواهد از این امتیاز روس‌ها استفاده کند. روسیه هم علاقمند است بازار خود را در این حوزه گسترش دهد؛ بنابراین می‌توان انتظار داشت که بین تهران و مسکو شراکتی در حوزه تسلیحات نظامی شکل گیرد. روشن نیست که معامله‌های تسلیحاتی ایران و روسیه به شکل آشکار انجام خواهد شد و یا با توجه به محدودیت‌ها و فشار‌های غرب به ایران، پنهانی خواهد بود. با این حال در اینکه ایران و روسیه شرکای تسلیحاتی یکدیگرند و در آینده معاملاتی خواهند داشت تردیدی وجود ندارد. چین هم در گذشته از صادرکنندگان تسلیحات به ایران بوده و نقش مهمی در تامین بخشی از تسلیحات ایران داشته است. قاعدتا حالا هم این پتانسیل برای همکاری مشترک بین پکن و تهران وجود دارد. در این میان نکته مهم این است که امروزه فقط خرید و فروش تسلیحات در سطح بین‌الملل اهمیت ندارد بلکه انتقال فناوری و دانش هم اهمیت ویژه‌ای داشته و ممکن است در مواردی دانش و فناوری تسلیحاتی مورد معامله دولت‌ها قرار گیرد. پس فقط نباید منتظر این باشیم که یک محموله بزرگ تسلیحاتی از چین یا روسیه تحویل ایران شود. اما در خصوص اینکه چین و روسیه چه واکنشی به تهدید‌ها و اقدامات ضد ایرانی آمریکا در این راستا نشان خواهند داد، باید این وجه ماجرا را در نظر گرفت که اساسا معاملات تسلیحاتی در دنیا به شکل آشکار انجام نمی‌شود، مگر در موارد خاص، مثلا طرفین بخواهند با اعلام رسمی یک خرید تسلیحاتی توازن قوا ایجاد نمایند.در بیشتر موارد، معاملات تسلیحاتی به شکل محرمانه و پنهانی انجام می‌شود. باید به این موضوع هم اشاره کرد که آمریکا علاوه بر اینکه به کشور‌های مختلف برای قطع ارتباط با ایران فشار وارد می‌کند، عملا کشور‌هایی مانند روسیه و چین را تهدید هم می‌کند. تهدید برای روسیه وچین مسئله‌ای حیثیتی و غیرقابل قبول است. همین موضوع ممکن است باعث شود که روسیه و چین به سمت آشکارسازی بخشی از معاملات تسلیحاتی خود با ایران بروند و آن را در چهارچوب رویارویی خود با آمریکا تعریف کنند. در گذشته این سابقه وجود داشته که شرکت‌های چینی و روسی با ایران معامله تسلیحاتی کرده‌اند و از سوی آمریکا تحریم شده‌اند. در نتیجه مسئله تحریم موضوع تازه‌ای نیست و خیلی از بخش‌های دفاعی و نظامی روسیه و چین همین حالا هم تحت تحریم آمریکا قرار دارند و تحریم تازه تهدید جدی برای آن‌ها به شمار نمی‌رود. یکی از ابعاد برداشته شدن تحریم‌های تسلیحاتی علیه ایران، موضوع فروش تسلیحات است. عمدتا در رسانه‌ها و سطح افکار عمومی بحث پایان تحریم تسلیحاتی را فقط از جنبه خرید تسلیحات نظامی از سوی ایران دیده‌اند، این در حالی است که ایران در سال‌های گذشته در تولیدات تسلیحاتی پیشرفت بالایی داشته و در برخی موارد به خودکفایی رسیده است، در نتیجه می‌تواند از قابلیت صادرات تسلیحات و یا انتقال فناوری و دانش استفاده کند. در این بین کشوری مانند ونزوئلا که روابط نزدیک سیاسی با ایران دارد و تحت تحریم آمریکا است، چیزی برای از دست دادن ندارد و می‌تواند مقصد صادرات تسلیحات ایرانی باشد. در گذشته ایران به بیش از 40 کشور صادرات تسلیحات داشته است و حالا با احیای این روند می‌توان موقعیت ویژه‌ای را برای ایران در منطقه متصور بود، از طرف دیگر درآمد اقتصادی مناسبی را هم به همراه خواهد داشت. کشور‌های زیادی در جهان می‌توانند وارد مبادله تسلیحاتی با ایران شوند. برخی کشور‌های همسایه و یا دورتر در شرایط خرید تسلیحاتی از ایران قرار دارند. سوریه، عراق، افغانستان و… که دارای روابط سیاسی نزدیکی با ایران هستند می‌توانند در زمره شرکای تسلیحاتی ایران باشند. البته ممکن است این شراکت با توجه به فشار‌های آمریکا محرمانه و پنهانی باشد.
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The point of his character should be that he’s the normal one.
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