«صبح امروز» به واکای بحرانهای موجود در سیاستهای ارزی میپردازد؛
نرخ ارز در دستانداز برجام!
مهناز اصغری
در ایران همواره نرخ دلار و ثبات آن، اهمیت زیادی در برنامه ریزیهای کلان اقتصادی و همچنین نرخ تورم داشته است. چراکه اثرگذاری مستقیم بر قیمت تمام شده کالاها و هزینههای ثابت زندگی مردم دارد.
به گزارش روزنامه «صبح امرز» باید اشاره داشت که نرخ ارز را میتوان از عوامل اثرگذاری دانست که بیثباتی در آن، رقابت پذیری کشور را تحت تاثیر قرار میدهد. به عقیده کارشناسان انحراف آن از مقادیر تعادلی و همچنین نوسان در نرخ ارز، موجب ایجاد فضایی بیثبات و نامطمئن در اقتصاد میگردد.
دولت ایران نیز برای مدیریت بازار، سه نرخ ترجیحی، نیمایی و بازار آزاد را تعریف کرد که نرخ نخست برای واردات کالاهای اساسی، نرخ دوم برای معامله میان صادرکننده و واردکننده و نرخ سوم در بازار اجرایی میشود. همچنین بد نیست اشارهای داشته باشیم که به نظر میرسد بازار ارز تا زمانی که تکلیف مذاکرات هستهای و احیای برجام روشن نشود، در برابر کاهش قیمت مقاومت میکند و روز گذشته نیز با روندی افزایشی در کانال 27 و 28 هزار تومانی قرار داشت. با توضیحات فوق بر آن شدیم تا به نقد سیاستهای ارزی و واکای بحرانهای موجود در این حوزه بپردازیم.
رابطه نرخ ارز و ارزش پول ملی
یک کارشناس اقتصادی در گفتگو با «صبح امروز» میگوید: بدون تردید کاهش نرخ ارز رابطه مستقیمی با افزاریش ارزش پول ملی دارد و در سادهترین دیدگاه افزایش ارزش پول ملی رفاه را به همراه میآورد. اما موضوع این است که کاهش طولانی مدت نرخ ارز اگر بتواند علامت مثبتی به تولیدکننده و وارد کننده بدهد تا قیمت سایر کالاها کاهش پیدا کند میتواند برای اقتصاد مفید باشد. اما در صورتی که تنها یک سرکوب اجباری نرخ باشد به مانند فنری فشرده شده، به یکباره پس از یک دوره، شوک ارزی را به همراه میآورد و بالطبع افزایش یکباره قیمتها و تورم کمر شکن را با خود به همراه دارد.
دکتر ابراهیمی ادامه میدهد: ما در دهه ۹۰ دو شوک قیمتی دلار داشتیم که هر دو آنها پس از شکلگیری تحریمها و تشدید آنها ایجاد شد. یک بار دلار از ۱۰۰۰ تومان به حدود ۴۰۰۰ تومان و بار دوم به مرز ۳۰ هزار تومان رسید.
ایران در حال حاضر از انگلستان قریب به 500میلیون پوند بابت خرید1500دستگاه تانک از این کشور در سال 1350 طلبکار است. چراکه هیچگاه تانکی به ایران تحویل نشد. حتی عراق نیز بابت صادرات برق و گاز رقمی در حدود 6میلیارد دلار به ایران بدهکار است. کره جنوبی با بدهی 8میلیارد دلاری و ژاپن با بدهی 3میلیارد دلاری از دیگر بدهکاران به ایران هستند
این کارشناس میگوید: در خصوص تاثیر قیمت ارز بر تورم و بالعکس نیز دو دیدگاه وچود دارد. دیدگاه طرفداران اقتصاد بازار آزاد که معتقدند قیمت ارز معلول تورم است، و دیدگاه مقابل آنها که میگوید قیمت ارز علت تورم است.
لزوم وصول حداکثری منابع حاصل از صادرات نفتی و حتی غیرنفتی
وی با اشاره به اینکه «اخیرا رئیس جمهور به نهادهای دولتی دستور داد که زمینه آزادسازی پولهای بلوکه شده ایران را فراهم کنند» بیان میکند: موضوع مطروحه در راهکارهای جلوگیری از افزایش نرخ تورم وبالطبع ارز، وصول حداکثری منابع حاصل از صادرات نفتی و حتی غیرنفتی کشور است که بدون شک باید راهبرد دولت سیزدهم در کنترل اقتصاد کشور باشد.
این فعال حوزه ارز مطرح میکند: فرای از صادرات وصول شده، میزان طلب ایران از کشورهای بزرگ دنیا به حدی است که دریافت آن مبالغ، میتواند بخش بزرگی از مشکلات اقتصادی فعلی کشور را حل کند.
ابَر بدهکاران ایران
وی با اشاره به مبالغ بستانکاری ایران از دیگر کشورهای بزرگ دنیا ادامه میدهد: ایران در حال حاضر از انگلستان قریب به 500میلیون پوند بابت خرید1500دستگاه تانک از این کشور در سال 1350 طلبکار است. چراکه هیچگاه تانکی به ایران تحویل نشد. حتی عراق نیز بابت صادرات برق و گاز رقمی در حدود 6میلیارد دلار به ایران بدهکار است. کره جنوبی با بدهی 8میلیارد دلاری و ژاپن با بدهی 3میلیارد دلاری از دیگر بدهکاران به ایران هستند که به بهانه تحریمها، پول نفت بدهی خود به ایران را بلوکه کردند. البته این نکته نیز بسیار حائز اهمیت است که لغو تحریم تاثیر بسیار مستقیمی بر کاهش و یا ثبات نرخ ارز دارد.
ابراهیمی با تاکید بر اینکه «دولت باید فرآیند برگشت ارز حاصل از صادرات را به هر نحوی که امکانپذیر است انجام دهد» میگوید: مهم ترین عامل تاثیرگذار در دولت جدید این است که ما چقدر به منابع بلوکه شده خود در دسترسی پیدا خواهیم کرد. چراکه اگر دستمان خالی باشد با توجه به کسری بودجه و تورمی که قابل پیش بینی هست مسلما نرخ دلار بالا خواهد رفت.
نرخ ارز یک مقوله کاملا سیاسی- امنیتی است
وی با اشاره به اینکه «عدم احیای برجام و نپیوستن به اف ای تی اف زمینه را برای حرکت نرخ ارز به کانالهای بالاتر فراهم میکند» تاکید میکند: بحث نرخ ارز در کشور ما یک مقوله کاملا سیاسی- امنیتی است ، در نتیجه نمیتوان تحلیل دقیق و اقتصادی در خصوص آن ارائه داد.
این کارشناس اقتصادی در پایان بندی صحبتهای خود مطرح میکند: لغو تحریمها و احیای دوباره برجام کسری بودجه ما را در آینده به حداقل و یا صفر میرساند چراکه برجام به معنای افزایش درآمد نفتی ما در آینده خواهد بود. در نتیجه نیاز به چاپ اسکناس و تزریق نقدینگی برای تامین کسری بودجه پیدا نخواهیم کرد. درنتیجه به تبع آن تورم نیز کنترل شده و نوسانات نرخ ارز نیز به حداقل خواهد رسید. در ادامه این زنجیره سیاسی اقتصادی، پذیرش اف ای تی اف نیز باعث حذف نام ما از لیست سیاه میشود و کمکی به کشور و یا بانکهای ما خواهد کرد.
موضوع مطروحه در راهکارهای جلوگیری از افزایش نرخ تورم وبالطبع ارز، وصول حداکثری منابع حاصل از صادرات نفتی و حتی غیرنفتی کشور است که بدون شک باید راهبرد دولت سیزدهم در کنترل اقتصاد کشور باشد
چند پیش زمینه مهم کاهش نرخ ارز
عضو هیئت نمایندگان اتاق بازرگانی تهران معتقد است کاهش نرخ ارز چند پیشزمینه مهم نیاز دارد و نمیتوان انتظار داشت که قیمت دلار با دستور پایین بیاید.
عباس آرگون در گفتوگو با ایسنا، اظهار کرد: بر خلاف برخی تصورات، وقتی از ارز صحبت میکنیم، از یک بازار و عرصه اقتصادی حرف میزنیم که قطعا مختصات خاص خود را دارد و مانند هر بازار دیگری از شرایط اقتصادی و تغییرات این حوزه تاثیر میپذیرد.
وی با اشاره به نرخ بالای تورم در اقتصاد ایران، بیان کرد: همانطور که نرخ تورم باعث افزایش قیمت در بسیاری از بازارها میشود و از مسکن و خودرو تا مرغ و تخم مرغ از آن تاثیر میپذیرند، بازار ارز نیز این گونه است. یعنی در شرایطی که اقتصاد ایران تورمی ۴۰ درصدی دارد، نمیتوان انتظار داشت که قیمت ارز ثابت بماند یا کاهش یابد.
عضو اتاق بازرگانی تهران با تاکید بر این موضوع که کاهش نرخ ارز با شیوه دستوری راه به جایی نمیبرد، توضیح داد: ما حد فاصل سالهای ۱۳۹۲ تا ۱۳۹۶ شاهد سرکوب نرخ ارز بودیم. یعنی با وجود آنکه اقتصاد ایران با تورم مواجه بود و قیمتها افزایش مییافتند، نرخ ارز ثابت بود؛ از اینرو وقتی این سرکوب متوقف شد، با یک شوک ارزی و افزایش جدی قیمتها مواجه شدیم، از اینرو، پایین آوردن دستوری قیمت، تنها به تاخیر در افزایش نرخ و سپس یک شوک جدید منجر خواهد شد.
بازار ارز تابع عرضه و تقاضاست
آرگون با بیان اینکه بازار ارز نیز تابع عرضه و تقاضاست، گفت: در سالهای گذشته با تحریمهای آمریکا مواجه بودیم و همین موضوع دسترسی ما به درآمدهای ارزی را تحت تاثیر قرار داده است. یک سوی این ماجرا دولت است که عملا امکان دسترسی به بخش مهمی از درآمدهای ارزی خود را از دست داده و یک سوی دیگر نیز بخش خصوصی است که هرچند بخش مهمی از ارز حاصل از صادرات خود را به کشور بازگردانده اما از یک سو با توجه به تحریمها مجبور هزینه بیشتری برای تولید و صادرات شده و از سوی دیگر بازگشت ارز را با دشواریهایی فراوان نهایی کرده است.
وی ادامه داد: اگر بخواهیم نرخ ارز پایین بیاید، از سویی باید برای تحریمها و محدودیتها چارهای پیدا کنیم تا با افزایش عرضه، قیمت کاهش پیدا کند و از سوی دیگر با برطرف کردن مشکلات زیرساختی اقتصاد ایران مانند تورم، افزایش قیمت ارز را نیز مانند دیگر بازارها کند کنیم. در غیر این صورت و با دستور و اجبار قطعا راه به جایی نخواهیم برد.
به گفته آرگون، آنچه در بازار ارز بیشترین اهمیت را دارد، ثبات در نرخ و پیشبینی پذیری آینده است، یعنی سیاستها باید به سمتی برود که از سویی شوک قیمتی محدود شود و از طرف دیگر، برای سرمایهگذار امکان پیشبینی از آینده و تحلیل شرایط ایجاد شود.
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