کاهش قیمت طلا تا کجا ادامه دارد؟
فلز جو زده
ریحانه موسوی
از دیرباز افراد برای کسب اطمینان از تغییرات و عدم ثبات پولهای کاغذی، همواره بهدنبال خرید و ذخیره طلا بودهاند. در حال حاضر معاملات طلا درکنار شیوههای سنتی استفاده از شمش، سکه و جواهرآلات در بازارهای بورس بینالمللی صورت میگیرد.
به گزارش روزنامه (( صبح امروز )) قیمت طلا مانند سایر کالاها با توجه به میزان عرضه و تقاضای آن تعیین میشود، اما مسئلهای که باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد این است که چشم بازار طلا تنها به یک خبر نگاه نمیکند و کلیه حوادث از قبیل بحرانهای اقتصادی، تشنجات سیاسی، بورسبازی و نوسانات نرخ ارز بر قیمت طلا تاثیر میگذارند. قیمت طلا در همه جای دنیا بر حسب دلار یا پول ملی کشور مزبور تعیین میشود و اگر طلا بر حسب پول ملی یک کشور تعیین گردد این محاسبه از طریق نرخ برابری دلار و پول ملی تعیین میشود.
طلا به دلیل ریسک کم و بازده منطقی خوبی که دارد به عنوان سرمایهگذاری امن و مطمئن مورد توجه افراد قرار میگیرد، اما دلایل اصلی نوسان قیمت آن مسائل اقتصادی و سیاسی است که تأثیر زیادی بر میزان عرضه و تقاضا دارد. با بهبود شرایط اقتصادی بازارهای جهانی و اعمال سیاستهای مناسب بانکی در خارج و نظارت دقیق بانک مرکزی، کنترل نقدینگی در بازار و ایجاد تعادل در عرضه و تقاضای طلا در داخل میتوان نوسانات قیمت سکه و طلا را کنترل کرد.
اما این فلز گرانبها که در چند وقت اخیر مانند سایر کالاها افزایش قیمت بیسابقهای را تجربه کرده بود، پس از انتخاب جوبایدن به ریاست جمهوری آمریکا و تحت تاثیر عوامل روانی در حال کاهش قیمت است. در حال حاضر طلا به عنوان یک بازار بزرگ اقتصادی در کنار سایر بازارهای سرمایه پیش روی افراد است به همین دلیل جهت بررسی وضعیت آن در آینده به سراغ یک اقتصاددان رفتیم تا روند قیمت آن را مورد بررسی قرار دهیم.
کاهش قیمت روانی
مرتضی افقه استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه اهواز در گفتگو با (( صبح امروز )) میگوید: روند قیمت طلا و ارز با یکدیگر همسو و تغییراتشان در یک جهت است، دلیل اینکه اکنون این دو همزمان با هم در حال کاهش قیمت هستند چیزی جز اثر روانی روی کار آمدن بایدن نیست.
بنده فکر نمیکنم که دلار از ۲۰ هزار تومان و طلا از گرمی ۱۰ میلیون تومان کمتر شود، زیرا سایر ساختارهای اقتصادی و قیمتها در بازارهای دیگر، کمابیش خود را با قیمتهای جدید تطبیق دادهاند
وی ادامه میدهد: دلیل اینکه انتخاب بایدن اثری مثبت بر روی متغیرهای ما داشته این است که، احتمال میرود وی طبق وعدههای انتخاباتی به برجام بازگردد که این امر به معنای برداشته شدن تحریمها و بازگشت ایران به روال عادی فروش نفت و تجارت خارجی است که موجب برقراری جریان ارز به داخل کشور میشود. اثر روانی موجود باعث شد تا افرادی که به آینده خوشبین هستند جهت فروش طلای خود هجوم ببرند که این امر موجب مازاد عرضه و کاهش قیمت طلا شد.
ایست سکه در کانال ۱۰ میلیونی
افقه با بیان اینکه (( اکنون دو سوال برای مردم به وجود میآید، اول اینکه این کاهش قیمت تا کجا ادامه دارد و دوم اینکه آیا ممکن است دوباره شاهد افزایش قیمت باشیم؟ )) توضیح میدهد: بنده فکر نمیکنم که دلار از ۲۰ هزار تومان و سکه از کانال ۱۰ میلیون تومان کمتر شود، زیرا سایر ساختارهای اقتصادی و قیمتها در بازارهای دیگر، کمابیش خود را با قیمتهای جدید تطبیق دادهاند، بنابراین بعید میدانم که قیمتها از میزانی که بیان کردم کمتر شود.
شرایط در دوران بایدن بهتر خواهد بود
وی با اشاره به اینکه ممکن است تا مدتی بیثباتی در بازار حاکم باشد، ابراز میکند: ثبات قیمتها در آینده، به زمان آغاز به کار بایدن و دستور برداشتن تحریمها از سوی وی بستگی دارد، که موجب افزایش جریان فروش نفت ما میگردد. برخی پیشبینی میکنند که شاید بایدن بخواهد مذاکرات جدیدی انجام دهد، اگر چنین اتفاقی بیفتد همه چیز بستگی به تبعیت ایران و برقراری گفتگو بر سر سایر موارد اختلاف دارد و بعد از یک دوره آرامش دوباره دچار مشکل میشویم، زیرا ممکن است ایران زیر بار مذاکره نرود، اما در هر صورت شرایط بسیار بهتر از دوران فشار ترامپ خواهد بود.
بحران های سیاسی، نظامی و منطقهای در اکثر نقاط جهان، تأثیر مهمی بر روی نوسانات قیمت طلا در بازارهای جهانی دارد و کارشناسان اقتصادی معتقدند در صورت گسترش تنشهای سیاسی به سایر کشورهای خاورمیانه قیمت طلا بیش از پیش افزایش یابد. البته روزنامه «صبحامروز» اعلام میکند اظهارات بالا نظرات شخصی فرد مصاحبه شوندهاست و افزایش و کاهش قیمت طلا متغیرهای متنوعی دارد.
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