آخرین ابزار اروپا برای مجاب کردن ایران به ماندن در برجام
اینستکس راهکاری بدون تضمین
علی روغنگران
چند روز قبل از برگزاری نشست کمیسیون مشترک برجام در ششم دسامبر (15 آذر)، شش کشور اروپایی، در یک بیانیه رسمی اعلام کردند که با هدف حفظ توافق هستهای به سازوکار «ابزار حمایت از مبادلات تجاری» (اینستکس) خواهند پیوست. کشورهای بلژیک، دانمارک، فنلاند، هلند، نروژ و سوئد با اعلام این خبر گفتند که اهمیت زیادی برای حفظ و اجرای کامل برنامه جامع اقدام مشترک (برجام) توسط همه طرفها قائل هستند. در ادامه بیانیه این شش کشور آمده است: «در پرتو ادامه حمایت کشورهای اروپایی از توافق هستهای و تلاشهای جاری برای اجرای بخش اقتصادی آن و تسهیل تجارت قانونی بین اتحادیه اروپا و ایران، ما اکنون در فرآیند سهامدار شدن در اینستکس هستیم که تابع تکمیل رویههای ملی است.»
در مقابل، کشورهای اروپایی از ایران خواستهاند که «بدون تاخیر به اجرای کامل مفاد و بندهای توافق هستهای» بازگردد.
اینستکس در ژانویه 2019 با هدف تامین منافع اقتصادی ایران، که پس از خروج یکجانبه آمریکا از برجام به شدت آسیب دیده بود، توسط فرانسه، بریتانیا و آلمان راه اندازی شد و قرار بود در ابتدا شامل فروش نفت ایران بشود، اما به خاطر فشار و تهدیدات آمریکا شامل فروش نفت نشد و حتی اقلام غیرتحریمی هم در چارچوب این سازوکار به طور گسترده دادوستد نشدند. در ماههای اخیر اروپاییها، به ندرت درباره اینستکس اظهارنظر کردند. آنها بیشتر به دنبال متقاعد کردن ایران و آمریکا به از سرگیری مذاکرات مستقیم بودند. اما زمانی که معلوم شد که شروع دوباره مذاکرات میان تهران و واشنگتن امکان پذیر نیست، به تدریج ایده احیای اینستکس به عنوان راهکاری برای مجاب کردن ایران به ماندن در برجام مجددا برجسته شد. خصوصا که ایران از ماه سپتامبر تاکنون، دو گام کاهش تعهدات هستهای برداشته است.
گام چهارم هستهای که تقریبا یک ماه پیش برداشته شد، حساسیت مناسبات برجامی ایران و اروپا را بیشتر کرد. بعد از این گام، اروپاییها رسما و علنا ایران را به فعالسازی مکانیسم حل اختلاف مندرج در برجام تهدید کردند. امری که متضمن تهدید تلویحی به بازگرداندن تحریمهای سازمان ملل علیه ایران است. با این حال، ایران ضمن تاکید بر ادامه روند کاهش تعهدات، همچنان اروپا را به عدم اجرای تعهدات برجامی مرتبط با مسائل اقتصادی متهم میکند. ظاهرا اروپاییها برای نجات توافق بار دیگر به تکاپو افتاده و از طریق احیا و گسترش اینستکس، میخواهند ایران را به عدم برداشتن گام پنجم کاهش تعهدات ترغیب کنند. در این رابطه دو سناریو قابل تصور است:
نخست: واضح است که عضویت شش کشور اروپایی در اینستکس، با ترغیب سه کشور فرانسه، آلمان و بریتانیا صورت گرفته است. چرا که این سه کشور هم موسس اینستکس هستند و هم سیاست حفظ برجام را دنبال میکنند. اما این سه کشور تا حالا به دلیل فشارهای آمریکا نتوانستهاند کاری برای ایران انجام دهند. از این رو، این احتمال وجود دارد که سه کشور یادشده دنبال جلب حمایت سایر کشورهای اروپایی هستند تا بتوانند موضع متحد و یکپارچهای علیه آمریکا در زمینه تامین منافع اقتصادی ایران بگیرند. زیرا، به سختی میتوان تصور کرد که آمریکا با همه یا اکثریت کشورهای مهم اروپایی وارد تقابل شود. البته چنین سناریویی به این معنا نیست که اروپاییها قصد دارند تمام خسارتهای تحریمهای اقتصادی آمریکا علیه ایران را جبران کنند. بلکه ممکن است اروپاییها بخشی از مطالبات اقتصادی ایران را برآورده کنند و در این کار به طور متحد در مقابل فشار آمریکا مقاومت کنند.
اما سناریوی دوم این است که اروپاییها میخواهند سیاست یک سال گذشته خود را ادامه دهند. به عبارت دیگر، اروپاییها قصد ندارند اقدامی جدی برای تامین منافع اقتصادی ایران انجام دهند و فقط میخواهند وقتکشی کنند. این سناریو ضعیف است. چرا که به دلیل تعلل اروپا در برآورده کردن مطالبات ایران در یک سال گذشته، بعید است که مقامات ایران فریب مانور جدید اروپاییها را بخورند. احتمالا در جلسه بعدی کمیسیون مشترک برجام، مقامات ایران از همتایان اروپایی نتایج ملموسی را درخواست خواهند کرد.
هم اکنون پرسش اصلی این است که این بار چه تضمینی وجود دارد که اینستکس موفق شود. واقعیت این است که فعلا هیچ تضمینی دیده نمیشود. اما موفقیت این سازوکار به دو مسئله عمده بستگی دارد. نخست اینکه باید دید آیا آمریکاییها با اینستکس موافقت میکنند یا خیر. فعلا آمریکاییها مخالفت میکنند. ریچارد گرنل، سفیر آمریکا در آلمان، با پیوستن شش کشور اروپایی به اینستکس مخالفت کرده است. مسئله دوم هم که به نوعی با مسئله اول ارتباط دارد، فروش نفت ایران است. آیا مشارکت کشورهای اروپایی در اینستکس به معنای تضمین فروش نفت ایران و بازگشت درآمدهای آن است؟ ایران بارها گفته است که دومطالبه عمده دارد: فروش نفت وبازگشت درآمدهای آن به داخل کشور. اروپاییها هنوز اظهارنظری در این زمینه نکردهاند. باید منتظر ماند و دید که آیا اروپاییها این بار اینستکس را به طور جدی عملیاتی میکنند یا اینکه مانند گذشته صرفا وعده میدهند.
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