هشدارهای همسایه غربی
این روزها محافل رسمی و رسانهای در عراق مکررا از احتمال وقوع درگیری میان تهران و واشنگتن هشدار میدهند. در حالی که مقامات ایران و آمریکا مکررا تاکید می کنند که دو طرف تمایلی به جنگ ندارند، جو رسانهای و روانی در عراق به گونهای است که انگار ایران و آمریکا همین امشب یا فردا با یکدیگر درگیر خواهند شد. چنین جوی هرچند که اغراقآمیز به نظر میرسد، توسط اظهارات هشدارآمیز برخی مقامات عراق تشدید شده است. برخی ناظران برای این فضای روانی عراق، دلیل دیگری هم ذکر میکنند؛ این کشور در تاریخ معاصر خود سالها درگیر جنگ و تحریم بوده و به خوبی میتواند نشانههای وقوع یک جنگ را تشخیص دهد؛ خصوصا اگر ایران یا آمریکا یکی از طرفهای آن باشد. چرا که عراق با هر دو کشور تجربه جنگ و جدال طولانی داشته است. به رغم اینکه تحلیلگران زیادی معتقدند که تحرکات فعلی ایران و آمریکا در حد اهرمسازی در برابر یکدیگر است و احتمالا به جنگ ختم نمیشود؛ اما واقعیت این است نگرانی از احتمال وقوع درگیری میان دو طرف و کشیده شدن آن به خاک عراق به دغدغه عمده بسیاری از عراقیها تبدیل شده است. در این میان، تحرکات نظامی و دیپلماتیک در منطقه و بازتاب آن در رسانههای عراق به این نگرانی دامن زده است. تقریبا یک هفته پیش، مایک پومپئو، وزیر خارجه آمریکا، در حالی که طبق برنامه قبلی قرار بود به آلمان برود، ناگهان سفر به آلمان را لغو کرد و بدون هیچگونه اطلاعرسانی ناگهان عازم بغداد شد. پس از چند ساعت بیخبری معلوم شد که او سفری کوتاه و سری به عراق داشته است. سفری که منبع بسیاری از گمانهزنیها شد و با واکنشهای تند برخی محافل نزدیک به ایران در عراق مواجه شد. معین الکاظمی، یکی از فرماندهان بلندپایه حشدالشعبی، دو روز پس از سفر پومپئو، گفت: «آمریکاییها اکنون در دردسر هستند خصوصا که پایگاههای نیروهای آمریکایی در عراق و منطقه معروف هستند و به راحتی هدف گرفته میشوند. اظهارات پومپئو ترس بزرگی را نشان میدهد که آمریکاییها امروز آن را تجربه میکنند.»
پیش از این، یک روز پس از سفر پومپئو به عراق، نوری مالکی، نخستوزیر پیشین عراق و رئیس ائتلاف «دولت قانون» در دیدار با دیوید ساترفیلد، دستیار وزیر خارجه آمریکا در امور خاور نزدیک، گفت: «عراق باید خود را از هرگونه نزاع منطقهای و بین المللی دور کند و حاکمیت آن باید مورد احترام قرار گیرد. عراق نباید نقطه آغاز هر گونه حمله به دیگران باشد.»
مالکی اندکی بعد به شکل صریحتری هشدار داد. او از تشدید تنشهای نظامی و کوبیدن بر طبل جنگ در منطقه ابراز نگرانی کرد و چنین چیزی را برخلاف قوانین و هنجارهای بین المللی دانست. به گفته او، این تحرکات نظامی، «تبعات خطرناکی برای ملت مسلمان ایران و تمام ملتهای منطقه» خواهد داشت. یکی از دلایل اصلی نگرانی مقامات عراق، احتمال شعلهور شدن درگیری میان نیروهای نزدیک به ایران در عراق و آمریکا در خاک عراق است. عامر عبدالجبار، وزیر سابق حمل و نقل عراق، معتقد است که احتمال اینکه آمریکا نیروهای نزدیک به ایران را در عراق هدف قرار بدهد بیشتر است. او به بخش عربی روزنامه اندیپندنت گفته است که چنین حملهای احتمالا پیشگیرانه خواهد بود. این نگرانی چندان هم بیراه نیست. یک منبع نزدیک به عادل عبدالمهدی، نخستوزیر عراق، به وبگاه المانیتور گفته است که عبدالمهدی پس از سفر پومپئو به عراق، با رئیس دستگاه اطلاعاتی، وزیر خارجه و سایر مقامات کشورش جلسه گرفته است تا سفر پومپئو را بررسی کند. این جلسه کل شب طول کشید. عبدالمهدی در این جلسه اعلام کرده است که پومپئو به او هشدار داده اگر نیروهای آمریکایی در عراق مورد حمله قرار گیرند، آمریکا به شبهنظامیان نزدیک به ایران در حشدالشعبی حمله خواهد کرد. عبدالمهدی از حشدالشعبی تضمین گرفته است که به نیروهای آمریکا حمله نکنند. به نظر میرسد که عبدالمهدی احتمال برافروخته شدن نزاع میان ایران و آمریکا را جدی میداند. پیش از سفر او به ترکیه، حنین القدو، نماینده پارلمان عراق، به خبرگزاری «بغداد الیوم» گفت: «یکی از موضوعات مهمی که نخست وزیر عراق در سفر به ترکیه درباره آن گفتگو و رایزنی خواهد کرد، موضوع حمله احتمالی آمریکا علیه ایران است.»
نگرانی از احتمال تشدید تنشها میان ایران و آمریکا در عراق به سطحی رسیده است که برخی رهبران قبایل عراق به اعضای قبایل خود هشدار دادهاند که به پایگاههای نظامی حشدالشعبی نزدیک نشوند. این رهبران مدعی شدهاند که ایران در این پایگاهها موشکهای بالستیک مستقر کرده است. مزاحم الحویت، یکی از این رهبران، در گفتگو با خبرنگار شبکه الحدث، با طرح ادعای فوق، مدعی شد که حمله آمریکا به پایگاههای حشدالشعبی «بسیار نزدیک» است. به موازات این هشدارها و نگرانیها، برخی چهرههای سیاسی عراق خواستار میانجیگیری میان ایران و آمریکا برای حل بحران فعلی شدهاند. عمار الحکیم، رئیس فراکسیون پارلمانی اصلاح، هشدار داد که تحرکات آمریکا برای «خفه کردن حکومت و ملت ایران» برای عراق تبعات «فاجعهبار و خطرناک» خواهد شد. از این رو، الحکیم از دولت کشورش خواست که راهکاری برای میانجیگری میان دو طرف ارائه کند. او معتقد است که سیاست آمریکا برای صفر کردن صادرات نفت ایران، به این معناست که آمریکا از سیاست اعمال فشار به سیاست خفه کردن دولت و ملت ایران منتقل شده است. امری که برای کل منطقه و خصوصا عراق پیامدهای فاجعهباری خواهد داشت.
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