گزارشی از پیش‌نویس لایحه بودجه 1400؛

وابستگی به نفت تکرار می‌شود

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موضوع اصلاح ساختار بودجه و فرآیند بودجه‌ریزی سال‌هاست که در دولت‌ها و مجالس گوناگون به عنوان ضرورتی مهم مورد تاکید قرار می‌گیرد اما اجرای طرح‌های مربوط به این اصلاح همواره با موانع بی‌شماری روبه‌رو بوده است. یکی از اهداف اصلاح ساختار بودجه، قطع وابستگی اقتصاد ایران به نفت است و فرآیند‌ی بلندمدت یا دست‌کم میان‌مدت خواهد بود که ضرورت آغاز آن مورد اجماع همه قوا، نهادها و سازمان‌ها بوده و نتیجه آن عبور از اقتصاد نفت‌محور به اقتصاد پایدار است.

نکته قابل تامل این است که پیش نویس لایحه بودجه ۱۴۰۰ نشان می‌دهد نه تنها فروش نفت بلکه پیش فروش نفت نیز در آن گنجانده شده است.

به گزارش روزنامه «صبح امروز» و به نقل از مهر، بودجه سنواتی کشور از ایرادات ساختاری شدید رنج می‌برد که از جمله مهمترین آنها، وابستگی شدید به درآمدهای نفتی است. این وابستگی موجب شده طی چهار دهه گذشته هرگونه نوسانی در قیمت و درآمدهای نفتی منجر به کسری بودجه شدید دولت وقت شود و عموماً این کسری با جبران از طریق چاپ پول، تشدید تورم را در پی داشته باشد.

با توجه به چشم انداز درآمدهای نفتی، دولت‌ها معمولاً برآورد خوبی از میزان درامدهای نفتی در سال پیش رو دارند اما با بیش براورد درامدهای نفتی، سعی می‌کنند دخل و خرج سال پیش روی خود را تراز و متعادل نشان داده و اقدام به پوشاندن و پنهان کردن کسری خود کنند و در سال اجرای بودجه، با چاپ پول، این کسری را جبران می‌کنند.

دولت دوازدهم طی دوسال اخیر از طریق بیش براورد درآمدهای نفتی و درآمدهای ناشی از فروش اموال مازاد دولتی کسری بودجه را پنهان، و تعادلی ظاهری در دخل و خرج سنواتی کشور ایجاد کرد. دولت هم در سال ۹۸ و هم در سال ۹۹ با براورد فروش به ترتیب ۱.۵ و ۱ میلیون بشکه نفت در روز، بودجه را به ظاهر تراز کرد. نگاهی به عملکرد ۶ ماهه دولت در تأمین منابع بودجه ۹۹ نشان می‌دهد که از ۲۸ هزار و ۴۷۰ میلیارد تومانی که از منابع حاصل از صادرات نفت و میعانات گازی و خالص صادرات گاز باید تا ۶ ماهه نخست تأمین می‌شد تنها ۱۷.۵ درصد محقق شده است. منابع حاصل از فروش و واگذاری اموال منقول و غیرمنقول نیز با وجود پیش بینی ۲۴ هزار و ۷۰۰ میلیاردی تنها ۴۰۰ میلیارد تومان عملیاتی شده است.

ناترازی دخل و خرج دولت چنان بود که علیرغم تصویب در مجلس، دولت باز هم ناچار شد با دور زدن مجلس، اصلاحات دیگری را برای آن در شورای هماهنگی سران قوا به تصویب برساند.

 

ابوحمزه: ‏اگر مجلس منتظر ارائه رسمی لایحه توسط دولت باشد عملاً مقابل عمل انجام شده قرار می‌گیرد و کاری نمی‌تواند انجام دهد. باید از تجربه سال‌های گذشته درس بگیریم

 

این در حالی است که رؤسای سازمان برنامه هیچ گاه به طرز شفاف علت این بیش برآورد برای فروش نفت و ناترازی را بیان نکردند، تنها دلیلی که گاهی از زبان مسئولان شنیده می‌شود این است که اگر فروش نفت به میزان واقعی در بودجه دیده شود، دشمنان سو استفاده خواهند کرد!

تضعیف جایگاه مجلس در تصویب بودجه دو سال گذشته

در این باره، سید محمد هادی سبحانیان، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه خوارزمی خطر تکرار این مدل بودجه بندی را در سال ۱۴۰۰ با شکل و شمایلی جدید گوشزد می‌کند و می‌گوید: در سنوات گذشته همواره دولت‌ها با یک مستمسکی کسری بودجه را پوشش می‌دادند. یک سال با بیش‌برآورد فروش نفت و یک سال با بیش‌برآورد مولدسازی دارایی‌های دولت. سال گذشته کسری بودجه، هم با بیش‌برآوردی میزان فروش نفت و هم با بیش‌برآوردی عدد مولدسازی دارایی‌های دولت به صورت صوری پوشش داده شد. به همین دلیل نیز بودجه، بلافاصله در اردیبهشت ماه به شورای سران رفت.

سبحانیان معتقد است: بحث پیش‌فروش نفت در بودجه ۱۴۰۰ پوششی برای پنهان ماندن کسری بودجه و همان عاملی‌است که موجب می‌شود بودجه ۱۴۰۰ نیز دوباره بدون اصلاحات جدی ساختاری به مجلس ارائه شود. بنابراین امیدواریم که دولت این کار را نکند و اگر هم احیاناً این اتفاق افتاد حداقل مجلس زیر بار آن نرود. متأسفانه در دو سال گذشته صلاحیت‌های تقنینی مجلس در حوزه تصویب بودجه زیر سوال رفته است که برای جایگاه مجلس که در کشور ما در رأس امور تعریف شده است اتفاق مناسبی نیست.

پیش فروش ۲۰۵ هزار میلیارد تومانی پیش فروش نفت!

پیش نویس بودجه ۱۴۰۰ نشان می‌دهد این پیش بینی‌ها رنگ حقیقت به خود گرفته است و دولت علیرغم همه شعارهایی که در راستای اصلاح ساختار بودجه و کاهش وابستگی به نفت می‌دهد، در این پیش نویس ۲۰۵ هزار میلیارد تومان درامد از محل پیش فروش اوراق نفتی پیش بینی کرده است که می‌توان آن را مهم‌ترین چالش بودجه سال آینده تلقی کرد.

در تبصره ۵ پیش نویس لایحه بودجه ۱۴۰۰ آمده است: «به دولت اجازه داده می‌شود برای تأمین مالی مصارف این قانون تا مبلغ دو میلیون و پنجاه هزار میلیارد ریال، پیش فروش نفت (ریالی-ارزی) اقدام و منابع حاصل را به ردیف…… جدول شماره (۵) این قانون واریز کند. منابع واریزی با رعایت ماده (۳۰) قانون برنامه و بودجه کشور مصوب ۱۳۵۱/۱۲/۱۰ برای تخصیص اعتبارات این قانون و مطابق موافقتنامه متبادله با سازمان برنامه و بودجه کشور هزینه می گردد.»

 

سبحانیان: گویا قرار است این بازی در بودجه ۱۴۰۰ با ابزار پیش فروش نفت تکرار شود و دولت در راستای کوبیدن آخرین میخ بر تابوت اصلاحات ساختاری بودجه، علاوه بر درآمدهای نفتی، درآمد حاصل از پیش‌فروش نفت را نیز که پیشتر با مخالفت جدی مجلس مواجه شده بود، در لایحه بگنجاند

 

پیش فروش اوراق نفت، پیش تر نیز در مرداد ماه سال جاری در قالب طرح «گشایش اقتصادی» از سوی دولت جهت تصویب به شورای عالی هماهنگی اقتصادی سران قوا ارائه شده بود اما به جهت معایب گسترده آن و پیگیری رسانه‌ها عملاً از دستور کار خارج شد. اما اینک در عین ناباوری همین طرح با ارقام بزرگ‌تر در پیش نوسی لایحه بودجه ۱۴۰۰ آمده است و در صورتی که تضمین بازخرید اوراق نیز در آن دیده شود (که برای جذاب شدن خرید این اوراق احتمال بالایی بسیار دارد) اثرات تورمی شدیدی دارد و دولت‌های بعدی را به شدت بدهکار می‌کند. ضمن اینکه فرصت اصلاحات ساختاری را نیز از مجلس می‌گیرد.

در پیش نویس لایحه بودجه ۱۴۰۰ منابع این لایحه نیز با رشدی حدود ۴۰ درصدی به ۸۰۰ هزار میلیارد تومان رسیده است که بخش عمده‌ای از این افزایش منابع را اوراق پیش فروش نفت به خود اختصاص داده است.

وابستگی شدید بودجه ۱۴۰۰ به نفت در اوج تحریم نفتی!

سبحانیان، عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه خوارزمی هم معتقد است: ‏در بودجه سال‌های ۹۸ و ۹۹ بابیش برآورد منابع ازجمله فروش نفت ‌و مولدسازی دارایی‌های دولت، کسری بودجه پنهان شد و گویا قرار است این بازی در بودجه ۱۴۰۰ با ابزار پیش فروش نفت تکرار شود و دولت در راستای کوبیدن آخرین میخ بر تابوت اصلاحات ساختاری بودجه، علاوه بر درآمدهای نفتی، درآمد حاصل از پیش‌فروش نفت را نیز که پیشتر با مخالفت جدی مجلس مواجه شده بود، در لایحه بگنجاند.

وی تاکید داد: ایجاد وابستگی بیشتر در بودجه سنواتی به نفت آن‌هم در اوج تحریم نفتی اقدام سنجیده‌ای نیست.

مسیر غلط بودجه بندی ادامه دارد؛ مجلس دست به کار شود

داریوش ابوحمزه، کارشناس اقتصادی هم با بیان اینکه جزئیات پیش نویس بودجه ۱۴۰۰ بصورت رسمی منتشر نشده به اخباری که از این پیش نویس درز کرده، اشاره می‌کند و می‌گوید: احتمالاً بودجه سال آینده در حال بسته شدن به شکل بسیار نا مطلوبی است. چراکه هم پیش فروش گسترده نفت و هم فروش گسترده دارایی‌های دولت در آن خواهد آمد که هر کدام از آنها معایب جدی خودشان را دارند. این، به معنای تداوم راه غلط سال‌های گذشته البته با شدت بیشتر است. ‏اگر این موارد در بودجه نهایی شده باشد، مجلس نباید تا ۱۵ آذر منتظر بماند. ‏اگر مجلس منتظر ارائه رسمی لایحه توسط دولت باشد عملاً مقابل عمل انجام شده قرار می‌گیرد و کاری نمی‌تواند انجام دهد. باید از تجربه سال‌های گذشته درس بگیریم!

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شاید این موارد نیز مورد علاقه شما باشد
حداکثریِ فاقد صلاحیت یا حداقلیِ با صلاحیت؟
زبان مادری ما نیاز به ترجمه ندارد
کلیشه‌ای که نیاز به یادآوری دارد
چراغ خاموش تئاتر
جای خالی فیلم کوتاه، مستند و انیمیشن
رسانه ترمیمی باید آسیب ها را از حالت تابو به مسئله اجتماعی تبدیل کند
ساعت به وقت اوتیسم
از پروژه‌هایی که توجیه اقتصادی داشته باشند، حمایت می‌کنیم
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