بررسی ابهامات در طرح مسکن کرامت؛

آیا ساخت سالانه یک میلیون مسکن امکانپذیر است؟

/590 دیدگاه /در , /توسط

رئیس جمهور منتخب مردم در دولت سیزدهم، در وعده‌های انتخاباتی و پس از آن، خبر از ساخت سالانه یک میلیون مسکن در قالب طرح کرامت داد و اذعان داشت که در فاصله زمانی 4ساله ریاست جمهوری 4میلیون مسکن کرامت ساخته خواهد شد.

به گزارش روزنامه «صبح امروز»، در اتاق کلاب هوس خبر آنلاین این پرسش مطرح شد که آیا اصلا چنین چیزی امکانپذیر است؟ در این خصوص برخی کارشناسان معتقد بودند ابعاد این طرح هنوز روشن نیست و حتی موافقان این طرح نیز بر این عقیده ‎بودند که اجرای آن الزاماتی را داراست که باید مد نظر قرار گیرد. همچنین بسیاری از تورم‌زا بودن اجرای این طرح تاکید داشتند و برخی دیگر راهکار تامین منابع مالی را مهمترین مساله در این حوزه ارزیابی کردند و معتقد بودند تامین این اعتبار از قدرت اقتصاد ایران در شرایط کنونی خارج است. آنچه می‌خوانید گزیده‌ای از نظرات صاحب‌نظران در این مباحثه است.

هیچ دولتی تجربه ساخت یک میلیون مسکن را ندارد

در این خصوص نائب رییس اتاق بازرگانی ایران گفت: اجرای پروژه ساخت یک میلیون واحد مسکونی در سال بسیار سخت و پیچیده است و در هیچ کشوری، دولت چنین تجربه ای را نداشته است.

حسین سلاح ورزی با تاکید بر اینکه  دولت باید جزییات این برنامه را هم اعلام کند، گفت: شاید برنامه‌ای جدید برای این پروژه تدارک دیده نشده و مدل همان مدل مسکن ملی و مسکن مهر باشد اما نکته مهم اینجاست که باید دید چه میزان از این واحدهای مسکونی در روستاها احداث خواهند شد.

وی ادامه داد: هرچند حدود سی هزار شرکت پیمانکاری در ایران وجود دارد که هرچند از نظر فناوری ساخت دارای تجربه نیستند ولی ظرفیت خوبی را دارا هستند و شاید بتوانند تعداد قابل توجهی مسکن بسازند اما نکته مهم به بخش تامین مالی بازمی‌گردد.

دو هزار سند مالکیت آپارتمان برای یک نفر

شهردار اسبق تهران نیز بیان کرد: قیمت زمین در شمال تهران طی چهار دهه بیش از ۶۰ هزار برابر شده است و با وجود شهرفروشی و تخریب چهره شهر با ساختمان‌سازی که مشکلات زیست محیطی نیز برای شهر ایجاد کرد، همچنان مشکل مسکن حل نشده است.

محمد حسن ملک مدنی در کلاب‌هاوس گفت: عجیب است که قیمت زمین ۲۵۰۰ سال طول کشید تا در منطقه‌ای مثل نیاوران به دو هزار تومان برسد اما در طول چهار دهه این قیمت بیش از شصت هزار برابر شده است. در سال ۸۰ که من شهردار تهران بودم، قیمت مسکن در نقاط مرغوب تهران محدوده هفتصد هزار تومان بود اما بینید که قیمت‌ها در این دو دهه چقدر افزایش عجیب و غریب افزایش داشته است.

وی افزود: کسانی که مالک خانه نیستند، در منازل استیجاری زندگی می‎کنند و عده ای نیز مسکن نامناسب دارند و باید برایشان فکری کرد. در نتیجه راه حل معضل مسکن در ایران از بهبود وضعیت رابطه مالک و مستاجری و برنامه ریزی برای نوسازی و مرمت و بهسازی واحدهای مسکونی نامناسب می‎گذرد.

او با طرح این پرسش که چرا کالای مورد نیاز خانوار تبدیل به کالای سرمایه‌ای شده است؟ گفت: طبیعی است برای رفع این مشکل باید سیاست‎های اقتصادی تغییر کند، چرا باید شهرها به محلی برای خانه‌های خالی تبدیل شوند؟ در همین تهران کسی هست که ۲ هزار سند آپارتمان در دست دارد، طبیعی است با تغییر سیاست اقتصادی باید بخش مهمی از مشکل رابرطرف کرد.

مجلس طرح جهش مسکن را تصویب کرده است

رییس مجمع ملی صنعت مسکن و ساختمان نیز گفت: مسکن موتور محرک هزار و دویست گروه شغلی است و هشتاد درصد اشتغال کشور مرهون صنعت مسکن است.

مجتبی بیگدلی گفت: معتقدم مسکن مهر پروژه‌ای موفق با حضور انبوه‌سازان بود و دولت فعلی بر همین مبنا طرح یک میلیون مسکن را با نام مسکن کرامت کلید زده است.

وی ادامه داد: ساخت یک میلیون مسکن در یکی از شعارهای اصلی آقای رییسی است، در ضمن باید توجه داشت مجلس هم طرح جهش مسکن را تصویب کرده است و طبق قانون اساسی، دولت موظف است مسکن مردم را در اختیار شهروندان بگذارد.

وی با دفاع از این طرح تاکید کرد: بدون تردید تولید یک میلیون مسکن در سال یعنی تولید یک میلیون یخچال، یک میلیون تلویزیون، هر چه در زیر سقف خانه یافت می‌شود. این یعنی اشتغالزایی که حجم آن قابل تصور نیست.

وی تاکید کرد: در بسیاری از کشورها که رشد منفی جمعیت دارند، به صورت کاذب صنعت مسکن را تحریک می‌کنند چرا که به مولد بودن و اشتغال‌زا بودن آن آگاهی دارند.

وی اضافه کرد: در کشور ما سالانه یک و تا یک و نیم میلیون واحد مسکونی نیاز داریم چرا که ۷۵۰ هزار ازدواج در سال اتفاق می‌افتد. در عین حال مسکن فرسوده و حوادث غیرمترقبه نیز داریم.

او با انتقاد از عملکرد وزیر اسبق راه و شهرسازی گفت: متاسفانه ایشان به طرح‌های تولید مسکن اعتقادی نداشتند و در نتیجه در پایان دولت دوازدهم بود که مسکن ملی راه افتاد اما نتوانست به هدف دست یابد.

مگر می‌شود سالی یک مشهد ساخت؟

یک کارشناس حوزه اقتصاد و آمایش سرزمین نیز در این نشست تاکید کرد: من همان زمانی که آقای رییسی این شعار را دادند محاسبه کردم این کار اجرایی نیست.

منصور به تجربه مسکن مهر اشاره کرد و ادامه داد: آقای احمدی نژاد قول ساخت دو میلیون مسکن را داد اما ۴۰۰ هزار واحد در حد اسکلت فیزیکی را تحویل داد. از سوی دیگر شهری مانند پرند برای اسکان ۲۰۰ هزار نفر پیش‌بینی شده بود اما با اجرای مسکن مهر، جمعیت این شهر جدید ۳۸۰ هزار نفر شد. متاسفانه شهر پردیس را هم روی گسل ساختند. فاضلاب ندارد و این مشکلات باقی است.

وی ادامه داد: ساخت چهارمیلیون مسکن، با احتساب هر واحد تنها چهارصد میلیون تومان، می‎شود۱۶۰۰ هزار میلیارد تومان اما با کدام پول می‎توان مسکن ساخت؟ مگر می شود سالی یک شهر مثل مشهد ساخت؟ آیا برای هویت شهری این واحدها هم فکری شده است؟

سه اشکال اساسی در طرح ساخت یک میلیون مسکن

یک کارشناس اقتصادی دیگر نیز در این زمینه توضیح داد: سه اشکال اساسی متوجه بحث تولید یک میلیون مسکن در سال است. اول اینکه چنین طرحی فشار نقدینگی و تورمی ایجاد می کند، دوم مشکل زمین که در زمان مسکن مهر هم داشتیم، به قوت خود باقی است و در عین حال فشاری که به منابع بانکی می‌آید، قابل توجه است.

جمال صدرعاملی با اشاره به اینکه بودجه عمرانی امسال ایران صد هزارمیلیارد تومان است، اضافه کرد:هزینه واقع‎بینانه ساخت متری ۳.۵ میلیون تومان است این بدان معناست که برای ساخت مسکن به ۳۵۰ هزار میلیارد تومان بودجه نیاز داریم که ۳.۵ برابر بودجه عمرانی سال جاری است.

جامعه هدف باید مشخص شود

نماینده اسبق مجلس نیز در کلاب هوس گفت: مدل ساخت یک میلیون مسکن مشخص نیست. حال فرض کنیم همه چیز آماده است. شهرداری پروانه بدهد و زمین نیز معارض نداشته باشد اما باور کنید من وسط کویر لوت پروژه پروژه داشتم و معارض پیدا شد.

سهراب قشقایی اضافه کرد: در ضمن اگر این واحدهای مسکونی ساخته شوند، باز باید دید مصرف‌کننده چه کسی است؟

ابعاد طرح روشن نیست

یک کارشناس اقتصادی با اشاره به  تجربه ساخت مسکن مهر در دولت دهم گفت:  هر چند معتقدم در قالب این پروژه بخشی از دهک‌های کم درآمد صاحب مسکن شدند ولی تحلیل هزینه فایده آن می‌گوید با مکانیزم دیگری می‌شد هزینه‌ها را کاهش داد و فواید آن را بیشتر کرد.

وحید شقاقی شهری سپس به شعار ساخت یک میلیون واحد مسکونی در سال اشاره کرد و ادامه داد: باز هم باید به این سوال مبنایی برگشت که آیا  لازم است دولت در بخش ساخت و ساز دخالت کند و مهمتر از آن آیا این دخالت به صرفه اقتصاد است؟

وی تاکید کرد: منطق سیاستگذاری اقتصادی می‌گوید باید حمایت‌ها به صورتی باشد که کمترین دخالت دولت در حوزه مسکن اتفاق بیفتد تا سرمایه گذار بخش خصوصی دنبال مسیر خود باشد. تجربه نشان داده است هر صنعتی با دخالت با بحران روبرو شده و مثال بارز این بحران را در صنعت خودرسازی می‌توان دید.

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