اصولگرایان و آرایش انسجامی در میان نیروهای سیاسی-نظامی
اتحادی برای حمایت از قالیباف
علی روغنگران
حدود 2 هفته پیش جبهه تحولخواهان انقلاب با تاکید بر اینکه انقلابیگری، تحولخواهی، عدالتطلبی و جوانگرایی چهار ستون اصلی تشکیل دولت مطلوب 1400 است، موجودیت خود را اعلام کرد. جمعیت جانبازان، جمعیت ایثارگران، و جمعیت رهپویان سه حزبی هستند که با انتشار بیانیهای اعلام کردند در این جبهه فعالیت خواهند کرد. شانزده سال قبل در آستانه انتخابات ریاست جمهوری، ائتلافی به نام اصولگرایان تحول خواه اعلام موجودیت کرد. علیرضا زاکانی در آن مقطع سخنگوی این جریان بود و بعد از بررسی نامزدها، اعلام کردند از نامزدی محمدباقر قالیباف حمایت میکنند. این حمایت در حالی بود که محمود احمدی نژاد عضو شورای مرکزی جمعیت ایثارگران بود که مهمترین حزب ائتلاف اصولگرایان تحول خواه بود. این انتخابات اگرچه در نهایت با پیروزی محمود احمدی نژاد و شکست قالیباف به پایان رسید، اما گروه تحول خواهان وارد سیاست ایران شده بود. در جریان انتخابات مجلس هشتم، که بعد از انتخابات سال 84 برگزار میشد، قرار شد سه طیف اصولگرایان، ائتلاف بزرگی را تشکیل دهند. این ائتلاف سه ضلع داشت. یکی اصولگرایان سنتی (همانها که امروز شورای وحدت را مطرح میکنند) که در انتخابات 84 از لاریجانی حمایت کرده بودند. گروه دوم حامیان رئیس جمهور وقت بودند که چند سال بعد بنیان جبهه پایداری را بنا گذاشتند و در آن زمان به عنوان رایحه خوش خدمت شناخته میشدند و سرانجام ضلع سوم که حامیان محمدباقر قالیباف یا همین اصولگرایان تحول خواه بودند. از میان این گروه، حسین فدایی و علیرضا زاکانی در جلسات وحدت شرکت میکردند.
به نظر میرسد در انتخابات 1400تمایل تحول خواهان انقلابی به سمت سردار قالیباف باشد. پیش از این گمانه زنیهایی درباره ریاست احتمالی زاکانی بر مجلس (بعد از ریاست جمهوری قالیباف) شنیده میشد و حمایت این ائتلاف از قالیباف، این گمانه را تقویت خواهد کرد. با این حال نکته مهمتر این است که نیروهای سیاسی-نظامی، بیشتر از هر زمان دیگری، برای حضور در انتخابات، آرایش انسجامی به خود میگیرند
گروه اول از دهها حزب سیاسی تشکیل میشد و گروه دوم هم حمایت رئیس جمهور وقت را پشت سر خود میدید. همین مسئله باعث انتقاد به جمعیت ایثارگران شد که چطور خود را یک ضلع مثلث اصولگرایی میداند. در آن زمان آنها تصمیم به تاسیس احزاب همسو گرفتند. دو تشکل جمعیت رهپویان و جمعیت جانبازان از دل همین ایده پدید آمدند. در واقع جمعیت ایثارگران متشکل از جناح راست سازمان مجاهدین انقلاب اسلامی در دهه شصت بود که عموما بازنشسته سپاه پاسداران بودند و اصلاح طلبانی مثل مصطفی تاجزاده به طعنه، آنها را حزب پادگانی مینامیدند. مجتبی شاکری، فدایی و … از افرادی بودند که سابقه عضویت در سازمان مجاهدین انقلاب را در کارنامه داشتند. اسمی که خیلی هم بی مسما نبود و بسیاری از اعضای حزب سابقه فعالیت در ارگانهای نظامی را داشتند. علیرضا زاکانی که سابقه فرماندهی بسیج دانشجویی در دهه هفتاد را داشت، حزب جدیدی به نام جمعیت رهپویان تاسیس کرد که اکثریت قریب به اتفاق اعضای شورای مرکزی آن، فرماندهان سابق بسیج دانشجویی بودند. حزب دیگری به نام جمعیت جانبازان انقلاب اسلامی هم یکی دو سال بعد تاسیس شد. از طرف این حزب سردار اسماعیل کوثری در جلسات اصولگرایان شرکت میکرد. بعد از اینکه کوثری به سپاه بازگشت، مجتبی شاکری دبیر کل جدید جمعیت جانبازان شد. به این ترتیب حالا آنها هم سه حزب داشتند. احزابی که البته موتلفه اسلامی منتقد جدی روش و منش آنها بود. این احزاب همگی در سال 88 از نامزدی محمود احمدی نژاد حمایت کردند. در واقع اگر جریان جبهه پایداری، به عنوان منتقدان سیاستهای تعدیل اقتصادی دوران هاشمی رفسنجانی خود را معرفی میکنند، اعضای این ائتلاف، به شدت منتقد اصلاح طلبان و سید محمد خاتمی هستند. در همان انتخابات 88 هم گفته بودند که اگر خاتمی و میرحسین نامزد انتخابات نشوند، قالیباف را برای رقابت با محمود احمدی نژاد به انتخابات میفرستند. در بیانیه جمعیت رهپویان در حمایت از محمود احمدی نژاد آمده بود «توجه ویژه به احیای عزت ملت ایران در میان ملل دنیا به ویژه تقویت پیشتازی جمهوری اسلامی در حمایت از مردم ستمدیده جهان، تسریع در موفقیتهای شگفتانگیز کشورمان در علوم هستهای، پزشکی، فضایی و … نیز ایجاد روحیه امید به آینده در مردم و تثبیت مسیر حرکت نظام در جهت ارزشهای والای انقلاب اسلامی، گزینهای جز رئیسجمهور محترم را برای حمایت در انتخابات دهم ریاستجمهوری، فراروی اصولگرایان قرار نمیدهد.» سال 96، اعضای شاخه قم چند حزب با محوریت جریان تحول خواهان اصولگرا، ائتلافی را در قم تشکیل دادند که هدف آن زمینه سازی برای ریاست قالیباف در مجلس با حذف لاریجانی بود. «جبهه شورای اصولگرایان استان قم» از شش حزب اصولگرا به نامهای جمعیت ایثارگران انقلاب اسلامی، جمعیت جانبازان انقلاب اسلامی، جمعیت وفاداران انقلاب اسلامی، جمعیت پیشرفت و عدالت انقلاب اسلامی، جمعیت آبادگران انقلاب اسلامی و جمعیت رهپویان انقلاب اسلامی تشکیل شده بود و احمد امیرآبادی فراهانی نماینده مردم قم در مجلس دهم تقاضای تشکیل این جبهه را اعلام کرده بود. این جبهه خیلی زود احمد امیرآبادی فراهانی و مجتبی ذوالنور نمایندگان وقت قم و همچنین علیرضا زاکانی را به عنوان نامزدهای مورد حمایت خود برای انتخابات مجلس اعلام کرد. پیش از این بعضی چهرههای اصولگرا، تلویحا از نفوذ بالای این طیف در بدنه شورای نیروهای انقلاب و جبهه مردمی نیروهای انقلاب، انتقاد کرده بودند و معتقد بودند آنها با هماهنگی، میتوانند گزینههای خود را برای انتخابات معرفی کنند. اما نیروهای تحول خواه، حالا راه خود را جدا میکنند تا وزن هر گروه در انتخابات مشخص شود. مسیری که هرچند سال 84 نتیحه نداد، اما حالا با برنامه ریزی بهتر، شاید به نتیجه متفاوتی منجر شود. به نظر میرسد در انتخابات 1400 نیز، تمایل تحول خواهان انقلابی به سمت سردار قالیباف باشد. پیش از این گمانه زنیهایی درباره ریاست احتمالی زاکانی بر مجلس (بعد از ریاست جمهوری قالیباف) شنیده میشد و حمایت این ائتلاف از قالیباف، این گمانه را تقویت خواهد کرد. با این حال نکته مهمتر این است که نیروهای سیاسی-نظامی، بیشتر از هر زمان دیگری، برای حضور در انتخابات، آرایش انسجامی به خود میگیرند.
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