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ولیالله سیف، نوزدهمین رییس کل بانک مرکزی در حالی با ساختمان بلندمرتبه میرداماد خداحافظی کرد که هم در اولین روزهای حضورش در دفتر ریاست کل بانک مرکزی و هم در روزهای پایانی حضور در این سمت، دلار دغدغهای جدی برایش بود.
سیف در حالی از ساختمان میرداماد رفت که فضا درست عکس روزهای آمدنش بود . آن روزها که دولت یازدهم ماه عسل در پاستور را آغاز کرده بود، کاهش نرخ دلار به دغدغهای جدی برای اقتصاد ایران بدل شده بود .
به گزارش خبرآنلاین، اقتصاد ایران شرایط تازهای را پشت سر میگذاشت . دلار در بازار میریخت تا اتفاقی تازه در اقتصاد شکل بگیرد و این سیف بود که ابتدا در گوشه و کنار و سپس در جمع نمایندگان اتاق بازرگانی تاکید کرد دلار نباید به کمتر از سه هزار تومان برسد . این اظهار نظر آن روزها از سوی برخی کارشناسان و افکار عمومی اظهار نظر عجیب تلقی شد ، آن هم برای دولتی که کارویژه اساسی اش کاهش نرخ تورم بود .
دلار در اولین روزهای تصدی دولت یازدهم حتی روی 2900 تومان را دید ، آن هم بعد از طوفانی که بازار ارز را درنوردیده بود و نام ” جمشید بسم الله” را بر سر زبانها انداخته بود. این چنین بود که مقاومت سیف در برابر کاهش نرخ دلار آن روزها به اخبار مهم رسانهها و نقل محافل عمومی و خصوصی بدل شده بود. کار سختی هم نبود . بالاخره نرخ دلار مهار شد و متوسط نرخ دلار در سال 1392 به 3183 تومان رسید .
کاهش نرخ سود؛ خداحافظی با سپرده بالاتر از یک سال
دولت با ساماندهی بازار پولی آغاز کرد؛ نرخ سود سپردههای بانکی در دستور کار قرار گرفت. بیش از آنکه سیف آن روزها به کاهش سود سپرده بانکی حساسیت نشان دهد،این طیب نیا، وزیر وقت امور اقتصادی و دارایی بود که حساسیت خاصی در این زمینه به خرج میداد و در مصاحبهها و نشستهای رسمی به وضعیت حاکم بر میتاخت.
سال 1392 نرخ سود بانکی بین 7 تا 25 درصد بود . هر چند در این سال برخی موسسات مالی و اعتباری غیر مجاز حتی رقمی بیش از این را نیز به سپرده گذاران پرداخت میکردند، همین امر سبب اعتراضاتی جدی بود . طیب نیا با استناد به اینکه نرخ سود بانکی در چهل سال گذشته منفی بوده است، تاکید داشت سود بالا ضد تولید و سرمایه گذاری مولد است.
نرخ سود بانکی در سال 1393 کاهشی در حدود سه درصد را تجربه کرد و به 22 درصد محدود شد هر چند برخی بانکها با استناد به برخی تبصرههای داخلی پرداخت سود بیش از این رقم را تضمین میکردند. اتفاق مهمتر اما در خداحافظی با سپردههای بالاتر از یک سال رخ داد. سقف زمانی عقد قرارداد به سپردههای یک ساله اختصاص داشت و آن روزها هم سیف و هم طیب نیا این تصمیمات را آغازی بر اصلاح ساختار بانکها میدانستند.
موسسات مالی و اعتباری؛ زخم تازه اقتصاد
اصلاح نظام بانکی ، بی توجه به موسسات مالی و اعتباری فاقد مجوز و برخی موسسات مالی و اعتباری دارای مجوز اما خارج شده از مسیر اصلی ممکن نبود. برآوردها نشان میداد 20 درصد از نقدینگی کشور در اختیار موسسات مالی و اعتباری غیر مجاز است و سیف با تکیه بر همین مساله تاکید کرد که تا پایان سال 1395 دیگر خبری از موسسات مالی و اعتباری غیر مجاز نخواهد بود . فهرست موسسات مالی و اعتباری مجاز اعلام شد و هشدار نسبت به عدم سپرده گذاری در موسسات غیر مجاز.
قصه اما به سادگی به پایان نرسید . لشگر کشی خیابانی مال باختگان موسسات مالی و اعتباری غیر مجاز ماجرا را وارد ابعادی تازه کرد. اتفاقات دی ماه سال 1396 را بسیاری عقبه همان داستان میدانند . بالاخره به گفته روحانی 11 هزار و 500 میلیارد تومان اعتبار برای بازپرداخت بدهی موسسات غیرمجاز اختصاص یافت . هنوز اما فصل پایانی قصه نگاشته نشده است که سیف با ساختمان میرداماد خداحافظی کرد . این روزها پرونده ثامن الحجج و مدیر عامل آن یکی از داغ ترین اخبار رسانههاست.
کاهش دوباره سود سپردههای بانکی
شهریور سال گذشته بود که بانک مرکزی، بانکها را مکلف به رعایت بخشنامهای کرد که پیش تر به تصویب شورای پول و اعتبار رسیده بود. بر این اساس بانکها مکلف شدند نسبت به رعایت سقف پرداخت سود سپردههای بانکی به میزان 15 درصد برای سپردههای یک ساله و 10 درسد برای سپردههای کوتاه مدت اقدام کنند. هنوز موتور تورم روشن نشده بود اما هشدارهایی مبنی بر حرکت بازارهای موازی در صورت کاهش نرخ سود سپردهها به گوش رسید .
با این حال اتفاق افتاد ، چند ماهی نیز بانکها پایبندی لازم به مصوبه را نشان دادند اما سرک کشیدن غول تورم به این سو و آن سوی اقتصاد شرایط را تغییر داد. بانک مرکزی از مصوبه خود در خصوص کاهش نرخ سود سپردههای بانکی عقب نشست و برای مدتی محدود افتتاح سپرده ریالی با سود بیست درصدی را مجاز اعلام کرد.
بسیاری از کارشناسان معتقدند که این اقدام به فرار سرمایهها از بانکها منجر شد اما در نهایت نه تنها به تولید روانه نشد بلکه بازار طلا و ارز را دچار التهابات دوچندان کرد.
و اما لنگر نرخ ارز
قطاری که در سه ماهه پایانی سال به راه افتاده بود، در تعطیلات نوروز نیز حرکت خود را متوقف نکرد . قیمت ارز بنای بالا رفتن داشت و نه گفتههای سیف در خصوص کاذب بودن قیمتها و بازگشت قیمتها کسی را از خرید منصرف کرد و نه بازار دست از حرکت مداوم خود برداشت.
در بیست و دومین روز فروردین ماه بود که سیف مقابل دوربینهای تلویزیونی تک نرخی شدن ارز را اعلام کرد و گفت: قیمت هر دلار 4200 تومان تعیین شده است. دلار جای خود را در مناسبات اقتصادی ایران به یورو داد.
خرید و فروش ارز در بازار ازاد ممنوع شد و بخشنامه پشت بخشنامه در خصوص وضعیت ارز صادر میشد . اعلام فهرست اسامی واردکنندگان با ارز 4200 تومانی ، در آخرین روزهای حضور پنج ساله سیف بر این مسند بود ؛ قصهای که هنوز ادامه دارد.
میراث سیف
کارهای نیمه تمام اما هنوز فراوان است . در بیست سال گذشته بارها طرحهایی در خصوص اصلاح ساختار بانکی اعلام شده است اما هنوز نظام بانکی ایران از بیماریهای متعددی رنج میبرد . بنگاه داری مساله اصلی است و تسهیلات معوق مانده بانکی هنوز معوق باقی مانده اند. نه بهمنی، رییس کل اسبق بانک رمکزی در موعد خداحافظی نامی از بدهکاران بزرگ بانکی برد و نه سیف. پرونده نوزدهمین رییس کل بانک مرکزی در اولین روزهای مرداد برای همیشه بسته شد، باید دید بیستمین رییس کل چه رهاوردی برای اقتصاد ایران خواهد داشت.
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