اکنون زمان مذاکرات است
یک تحلیلگر مسائل بینالملل گفت: اعلام پیروزی و نابودی داعش این پیام را به دنیا مخابره میکند که ایران پس از پیروزی نیازمند آرامش بیشتر و گذار از مرحله بحران است، رویکرد نظامی پایان پذیرفته و اکنون زمان مذاکرات سیاسی است.
مهدی مطهرنیا درخصوص پایان داعش و اعلام پیروزی از سوی ایران مبنی بر پایان این گروه تروریستی افزود: پیروزی امری نسبی و اعلام آن نشاندهنده احساس آرامش و آسایش است.
وی با بیان اینکه در دنیای سیاست اعلام این پیروزیها نمایانگر پیامی نهفته است، عنوان کرد: ایران و سایر کشورها میتوانند خود را پیروز این میدان معرفی کنند و برای آن استنادات متفاوتی را مترتب سازند. ایران نیز مستندات بسیاری دارد که توانسته در سوریه، عراق و در منطقه با حفظ امنیت داخلی ایران بر داعشی که دولت اسلامی در شام و عراق با جهتگیریهای رادیکالیستی و روششناسیهای تروریستی ایجاد کرده، غلبه کند، بخش مهمی از این غلبه جامعه جهانی بر داعش در خاورمیانه متوجه سرمایهگذاریهای ایران است.
این استاد علوم سیاسی گفت: اعلام این پیروزی این پیام را به دنیا مخابره میکند که ایران پس از پیروزی نیازمند آرامش بیشتر و گذار از مرحله بحران است، رویکرد نظامی پایان پذیرفته و اکنون زمان مذاکرات سیاسی است. این پیام را نیز مخابره میکند که ایران با توجه به پیروزی به دست آمده آماده ورود به بحرانی گستردهتر توسط افرادی است که خواهان محدود کردن همکاری بینالمللی با ایران و محاصره منطقهای تهران هستند.
وی با اشاره به اینکه پیروزی از آن جهت حاصل شده که داعش به هدفگذاریهای خاص خود در ارتباط با ایران دست نیافته و این مساله یک پیروزی است، گفت: از طرف دیگر ایران توانسته علیرغم فشارهای بسیار زیاد بر سوریه و رژیمی که از آن حمایت میکرده این کشور را تا حدود زیادی حفظ و در عین حال بشار اسد را نیز در سوریه نگه دارد. این موارد امتیازاتی است که ایران به دست آورده و میتواند عنوان کند که داعش را علیرغم تمام تحرکات ضدایرانی آن در دو منطقه جغرافیایی عراق و سوریه شکست داده و دوران پساداعش را با وجود بشاراسد حفظ کرده و اکنون زمان گرفتن امتیازات مبتنی بر هزینههای گزاف و زیادی است که در این منطقه بر ضدداعش به انجام رسانده است.
مطهرنیا با اشاره به پیام دیگر اعلام این پیروزی، تصریح کرد: ایران روسیه را به عنوان یک متحد در دفاع از سوریه در برابر داعش و حتی عراق در کنار خود دارا بوده و اکنون پیروز این میدان است و باید متناسب با هزینهها و سرمایهگذاریهایی که انجام داده، پشت میز مذاکرات آشکار و پنهان در جهت آینده منطقه و سوریه امتیازات خود را داشته باشد.
وی با بیان اینکه باید پیروزی را در معنای اصیل آن مورد توجه قرار دهیم، عنوان کرد: باید بررسی کنیم که ایران در وضعیت کنونی با ایجاد این فضا و این هزینهها چه چیزهایی به دست آورده است. سوریه محل استقرار قدرت روسیه و نفوذ بالای ایران بوده و قدرتهای منطقهای علیرغم نفوذ در بسیاری از عملیاتها در این جغرافیا مانند مصر، ترکیه، عربستان و حتی اردن در سوریه محل نفوذ نداشتند ولی اکنون در کنار ایران و روسیه، ایالات متحده، کشورهای اروپایی و در منطقه نیز ترکیه، عربستان و حتی عراق در سوریه مدعی هستند.
این تحلیلگر مسائل بینالملل با بیان اینکه حافظ اسد توانسته بود سوریه را به طرف جامعه در حال توسعه سوق دهد ولی اکنون دستاوردهایش از بین رفته است، عنوان کرد: با نابودی این دستاوردها، سوریه که ستون فقرات مقاومت و لبنان نیز که بازوان عملگرای آن در لبنان بود اکنون قطع شده و این احساس توانایی به کشورهای فرامنطقهای و درونمنطقهای مخالف قدرت دست داده است که اکنون بعد از مقاومت نوبت لبنان است، به این ترتیب حزبالله در وضعیت گروههای تروریستی قرار گرفت و اکنون نیز تغییر و تحولاتی در جهت انتقال بحران از سوریه به لبنان فراهم آمده است.
وی افزود: اعلام پیروزی بدین نحو امری درست است اما نباید ایران را مغرور و تغییر و تحولات بسیار وسیع و خطرناک آینده لبنان دور سازد. پیروزی امری است که باید محاسبه و حساب چرخانی شود. اگر ایران پیروزی را مطلق از آن خود بداند امری غیرمنطقی است و اگر هم اعلام کند که شکست خورده و امتیازی به دست نیاورده نیز امری غیرمنطقی خواهد بود. تفکر علمی و دانشگاهی ایجاب میکند که در چارچوبهای قابل قبول عقلانی و استدلالی به مفهموم پیروزی نگاه شود.
این استاد دانشگاه با اشاره به اینکه نشست اتحادیه عرب مانند همیشه نشست بیانیه دادن است، خاطر نشان کرد: آنچه بیش از اتحادیه عرب مطرح است، دیدار پوتین با رهبری نظام جمهوری اسلامی و نشستهای آشکار و پنهانی است که میان قدرتهای درونمنطقهای و فرامنطقهای در جهت برخورد با تهران است که تلاش میشود بازوان ایران در منطقه قطع شود.
وی افزود: آمریکا در پی ایجاد زمینههایی است تا جنگ نیابتی با ایران در مناطق سوریه و لبنان و یمن به جنگ رودررو با ایران با هزینه کشورهای منطقه و ایجاد یک جنگ عربی ایرانی در دنیای اسلام شود.
منبع: ایسنا
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