این هفته بورس چه رنگی می شود
ادامه روند خروج پول حقیقی از بازار، افزایش نرخ رشد صف‌های فروش و ثبات نرخ تغییرات ارزش معاملات خرد بازار در هفته گذشته گویای آن است که روندهای درونی بازار به سمت صعود نخواهد بود.
اقتصادنیوز نوشت: کارشناسان معتقدند میزان ارزش معاملات کلان و خرد، تغییرات حجم نقدینگی بازار و حجم صف‌های بازار مهم‌ترین عوامل موثر بر روندهای بورس هستند. اقتصادنیوز با تحلیل تغییرات این چهار معیار در هفته گذشته، روندهای محتمل بازار بورس در هفته آینده را بررسی می‌کند.
ورود و خروج پول حقیقی
از ابتدای مهرماه روند خروج پول حقیقی همچنان حفظ است. از روز یکشنبه به این سو نیز ارقام خروج پول حقیقی از بازار همواره بیشتر از هزار میلیارد تومان بوده است. آخرین روز معاملاتی که میزان تغییر مالکیت حقوقی به حقیقی مثبت بوده 26 شهریور ماه بوده است. بخش زیادی از مثبت شدن بورس در نیمه نخست تابستان مرهون ورود پول حقیقی‌ها است اگر روند خروج پول حقیقی ادامه داشته باشد، احتمال حفظ روند نزولی شاخص‌های بازار در هفته آینده نیز وجود دارد و حجم بازار سرمایه کوچک‌تر خواهد شد.
روند صف‌های فروش در مهر ماه
صف‌های خرید و فروش نشانه ای از تمایل به خرید و فروش سهام و قدرت نقد شوندگی بازار را نشان می دهد. نا تعادلی در این صف ها و سنگینی آن به نفع صف فروش خبر خوبی برای بازار نیست. میزان صف‌های فروش در هفته گذشته در سه روز ابتدایی صعودی بود. در روز سه‌شنبه حجم صف فروش با افت همراه بود، اما مجددا در روز چهارشنبه با رشد 156 درصدی مواجه شد. همچنین از ابتدای مهرماه همواره ارزش صف‌های فروش از صف‌های خرید بیشتر بوده است، اگر میزان صف‌های فروش در روزهای آتی افزایش یابد شاخص‌های بازار خصوصا شاخص کل هم‌وزن را پایین خواهد کشید.
ارزش معاملات
در هفته گذشته روند تغییرات ارزش کل معاملات بازار پرنوسان بود، اما رقم ارزش معاملات بازار در روز چهارشنبه نسبت به ابتدای هفته 64 درصد افزایش یافته و از 8 هزار و 130 میلیارد تومان به 13 هزار و 318 میلیارد تومان رسیده است. این اتفاق می تواند برای بازار علامت مثبتی شد.
ارزش معاملات خرد
ارزش معاملات خرد نیز در هفته گذشته پرنوسان بود اما میزان آن در آخرین روز هفته نسبت به ابتدای هفته تنها 5 درصد تغییر داشت. اگر در هفته آینده ارزش معاملات خرد افزایش یابد، فعالان بازار می‌توانند به رشد شاخص‌های بازار امیدوار باشند.
پیش بینی روند هفته آینده
ادامه روند خروج پول حقیقی از بازار، افزایش نرخ رشد صف‌های فروش و ثبات نرخ تغییرات ارزش معاملات خرد بازار در هفته گذشته گویای آن است که روندهای درونی بازار به سمت صعود نخواهد بود. مگر آنکه عوامل بیرونی موثر بر بازار بتوانند با تغییر انتظارات معامله‌گران روند بازار را تغییر دهند. عواملی مانند اتفاقات سیاسی و برخی رویکردهای حمایتی در تحریک مصنوعی بورس.
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