سرنوشت پیچیده توافق هستهای
777 روز بعد از مرگ برجام!
علی روغنگران
در پی صدور قطعنامه شورای حکام آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی در خصوص ایران که با پیشنهاد تروئیکای اروپایی و تحت فشار آمریکا روز جمعه 30 خرداد ماه به تصویب رسید و طی آن از ایران خواسته شد که به طور کامل با آژانس همکاری کرده و درخواستهای آژانس را بدون تاخیر بیشتر اجابت کند، از جمله این که فورا به محلهای مشخص شده از جانب آژانس دسترسی ایجاد کند، این سوال مطرح شد که اگر ایران به آژانس اجازه بازرسی از دو سایت مورد اختلاف را ندهد، آیا پرونده هسته ای خود را از شورای حکام به شورای امنیت خواهد کشاند؟ پیرو این نکته برخی از کارشناسان و ناظران بر این باورند که اساسا حیات برجام با اقدام دونالد ترامپ در خروج از توافق هسته ای در 18 اردیبهشت ماه سال 97 به پایان رسید. چرا که در واقع نقطه ثقل و تضمین کننده اجرای برجام را باید ایالات متحده تصور کرد. در این راستا دیگر اعضای 1+5 با چراغ سبز و حمایت واشنگتن پا در مسیر مذاکزات و حصول توافق هسته ای با تهران گذاشتند. لذا اکنون 777 روز است که مرگ برجام با خروج آمریکا از آن رقم خورده است. کما این که افتراق سیاسی رو به فزونی اعضای باقی مانده در برجام و تعهدات بر زمین مانده توافق هسته ای در این 777 روز گواه این مدعا است. با این وجود ایران و دیگر اعضای برجامی پس 18 اردیبهشت ماه سال 97 به خود این جرات را دادند که آیا می شود بدون ایالات متحده توافقی را، آن هم در سطح برجام مدیریت کرد یا خیر؟ برای پاسخ این سوال مذاکراتی این بار در قالب 1+4 با ایران به امید تداوم حیات برجام صورت گرفت. اما نتیجه کار در میدان عمل تنها تعلل اروپایی ها در انجام تعهدات، اتخاذ مواضع دیپلماتیک حمایتی صرف اتحادیه اروپا و انتظارات خارج از تعهد از ایران بود. به گونه ای که تعلل و وقت کشی اروپایی ها از S.P.V تا اینستکس در ادامه به جایی رسید که برای کارِ نکرده تهران را ملزم به انجام مذکرات جدید پیرامون فعالیت های هسته ای و نفوذ منطقه ای کردند. در این شرایط بود که تهران پس از یک سال صبر استراتژیک و در اولین سالگرد خروج آمریکا از برجام یعنی 18 اردیبهشت ماه 98 برنامه کاهش تعهدات برجامی را رونمایی و عملیاتی کرد؛ برنامه ای که در پنچ گام با بازه زمانی دو ماهه به امید ایجاد تحریک در اروپایی ها به منظور عمل به تعهداتشان پیگیری شد. در این رابطه تهران گام اول را با توقف فروش ذخایر اورانیوم غنیشده و ذخایر آب سنگین آغار کرد و در دومین گام به سراغ عبور از غنیسازی 3.67 رفت. در ادامه، لغو محدودیتهای تحقیق و توسعه برای گام سوم کاهش تعهدات برجامی را برگزید؛ گازدهی در فردو را در چهارمین گام پی گرفت و در گام پنجم و نهایی، توقف تمام محدودیتهای عملیاتی ایران در برجام شامل ظرفیت غنیسازی، درصد غنیسازی، میزان مواد غنیشده، و تحقیق و توسعه را در دستور کار قرار داد. اینجا بود که برخی دیگر از کارشناسانی که بر خلاف دسته اول معتقد به حیات برجام بودند، انجام و پیگیری هر گام از برنامه کاهش تعهدات هسته ای را عملا یک گام در مسیر مرگ برجام قلمداد می کردند. سرانجام پنجمین و آخرین گام از برنامه کاهش تعهدات برجامی 15 دی ماه 98 و تنها 48 ساعت بعد از اقدام ایالات متحده در ترور سردار سلیمانی برداشته شد. گامی که 9 روز بعد یعنی در 24 دی ماه تروئیکای اروپایی حاضر در برجام را وادار به فعال کردن مکانیسم حل اختلافات برجامی کرد که در نهایت می تواند کار را به فعال کردن مکانیسم ماشه بکشاند. بعد از آن برهه بود که اوج اختلافات تهران و اعضای اروپایی برجام شکل گرفت. با عملیاتی شدن برنامه کاهش تعهدات برجامی و اقدام اروپا در جهت فعال کردن سازو کار حل اختلافات برجامی، روز به روز دامنه اختلافات در حال گسترش بود تا جایی که روز جمعه قطعنامه مد نظر سه کشور آلمان، فرانسه و انگلستان در شورای حکام آژانس، علیه ایران تصویب شد. به نظر می رسد مسیری که ایران و اروپا در این 777 روز پیموده اند نشان از این دارد که دیگر کمتر کسی یافت می شود که ادعای زنده بودن برجام و حتی حیات نباتی آن را داشته باشد. حال سوال مهم اینجاست که آیا ایران در بستر این شرایط تکلیف خود را با توافق هسته ای یکسره خواهد کرد؟ آیا تهران توجیهی برای بودن در برجام دارد؟ اگر چه به باور بسیاری برجام مسیری دیپلماتیک، حقوقی، سیاسی و امنیتی بی بازگشتی را در پیش روی ایران قرار داده که عملا ذیل تعهدات خود و به خصوص قطعنامه 2231 توان خروج رسمی از آن را ندارد. اما اقدام روز جمعه شورای حکام، ممکن است یک سناریوی دقیق برای پیگیری این مهم باشد که تهران در مسیری قرار گیرد که در نهایت با دست خود کار برجام را یکسره کند. اگر به سخنان و در واقع اولتیماتوم 17 اردیبهشت ماه حسن روحانی، رئیس جمهور ایران، در نشست هیات دولت باز گردیم به نظر می رسد می توان سرنخی از این سناریو پیداکرد. رئیس جمهوری در نشست مذکور از نامه هشدارآمیز ایران به سران 1+4 در صورت بازگشت تحریمهای تسلیحاتی ایران در پاییز امسال خبر داد. روحانی در این زمینه صراحتا عنوان کرد که لغو تحریم تسلیحاتی، جزء لاینفک برجام است. اگر تحریم تسلیحاتی روزی بخواهد تحت هر عنوان، با هر بیان و با هر مکانیسمی برگردد، پاسخ ما همانی است که من در نامهای به سران 1+4 در پاراگراف آخر نوشتم. لذا سران خوب میدانند که جواب ما آن روز چه خواهد بود و آنها میدانند چنین خطایی چه عواقب وخیمی برای آنها دارد. پس اروپایی ها، ذیل نامه ارسال روحانی از اردیبهشت ماهِ سال جاری با علم به این که در صورت پیگیری هر اقدامی، چه در خصوص تحریم تسلیحاتی و چه در سایر حوزه ها مانند پرونده فعالیت های هسته ای، پاسخ و واکنش تهران چه خواهد بود، به نظر می رسد سناریویی را طراحی کرده اند که شاید ایران در مسیر خروج از برجام و تقبل تمام تبعاتش قرار گیرد، بدون آن که اروپا مقصر این وضعیت قلمداد شود. البته می توان این گمانه را هم مطرح کرد که آلمان، فرانسه و انگلستان با این برگ برنده (اشراف به واکنش تهران) در حال طراحی سناریویی برای مدیریت شرایط تنش تهران – واشنگتن هستند که در حال اوج گیری است. اتفاقا در این راستا تروئیکای اروپایی در نشست فصلی مجازی 4 روزه اعضای شورای حکام آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی، هم از ارائه قطعنامه توبیخی خود رونمایی کردند که در نهایت روز جمعه با نسبت 25 رای موافق به 2 رای مخالف و 7 رای ممتنع به تصویب رسید و هم از تلاش برای تهیه پیش نویس قطعنامه ای باز خبر دادند که طی آن تمدید محدود تحریمهای تسلیحاتی ایران از طریق اعمال بازرسی بیشتر، دادن اختیار به نهادهای بینالمللی برای توقیف محمولههای تسلیحاتی به مقصد و یا از مقصد ایران و کنترل شدیدتر بر ارسال تسلیحات از سوی ایران برای گروههای همسو با جمهوری اسلامی در خاورمیانه مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در این راستا به نظر می رسد که واکنش ادعایی حسن روحانی در نامه ارسالی به سران 1+4 از آن درجه نگرانی برای اروپایی ها برخوردار نبوده است که دست به این دو اقدام (تصویب قطعنامه در شورای حکام آژانس و تلاش برای برای ارائه قطعنامه به منظور تمدید محدود تحریم های تسلیحاتی) زده است. به هر حال باید پذیرفت که لندن، پاریس و برلین به دلیل حفظ وجهه استقلال سیاسی و دیپلماتیک خود در برابر آمریکای ترامپ و از همه مهمتر تبعات امنیتی ناشی پایان احتمالی حیات برجام، خواهان حفظ توافق هسته ای باشند. این سه کشور در آژانس بینالمللی انرژی اتمی و شورای حکام سعی کردند در قطعنامه خود ضمن انتقاد به عملکرد تهران در پرونده هستهای و ملزم کردن جمهوری اسلامی ایران به انجام تعهدات برجامی و پیگیری همکاری های لازم با آژانس در بازرسی های اماکن مد نظر، از آن سو امتیازات جدی هم به ایالات متحده آمریکا ندهد تا یک مسیر میانه ای را برگزینند. کما این که وزرای امور خارجه تروئیکای اروپا در بیانیهای مشترک که روز شنبه در پایگاه اینترنتی وزارت امور خارجه انگلیس منتشر شد، پیرامون موضع خود در برابر برنامه هستهای ایران و پایان یافتن تاریخ تحریم تسلیحاتی ایران از مخالفت با تلاش آمریکا برای تمدید تحریمهای سازمانملل علیه ایران خبر دادند. لذا پیرو این موضع گیری آلمان، فرانسه و انگلستان در برابر ایالات متحده به نظر می رسد که علاوه بر تصویب قطعنامه در شورای حکام آژانس، تلاش اروپا برای تهیه پیش نویس قطعنامه ای به منظور محدود کردن تحریم تسلیحاتی ایران نیز پیگیری سیاست میانه ای برای مدیریت تنش تهران – واشنگتن باشد. به عبارت دیگر اروپایی ها در مجموع به این ارزیابی رسیده اند که چون قطعنامه های شورای حکام آژانس از منظر حقوقی جنبه الزام آور جدی برای تهران ندارد. مضافا آن که لحن قطعنامه هم چندان تند نیست که بخواهد پرونده را به شورای امنیت سازمان ملل بکشاند تا واکنش تندی را از سوی تهران به دنبال داشته باشد و همچنین در سایه اشراف بر این نکته که تهدیدها و تبعات منفی ناشی از لغو تحریمهای تسلیحاتی ایران به واسطه نامه روحانی چندان قاطع نخواهد بود، دست به اتخاذ این سیاست میانه زده اند. مضافا این که آلمان، فرانسه و انگلستان این باور را دارند که حتی در صورت لغو تحریم تسلیحاتی ایران، چالش ها و مشکلات اقتصادی شدید داخلی و نیز تحریم هایی چون تحریم های بانکی و پولی اجازه نمی دهد که ایران به خرید گسترده و متنوع تسلیحاتی اقدام کند. از این رو تروئیکای اروپایی برآنند که به منظور تعدیل برنامه های مخرب کاخ سفید و به تبع آن احتمال نشان دادن واکنشی انتحاری و قهرآمیر توسط ایران که برجام را نابود خواهد کرد و همچنین برای جلب نظر واشنگتن، حجم بالقوه معاملات تسلیحاتی با ایران را محدود کنند.
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