بررسی سیگنالی که سیاستهای جدید اقتصادی به بازار سرمایه داده است؛
پول داغ به سمت بورس روانه میشود؟
صاحبنظران اقتصادی بر این باورند که به طور کلی رشد تورم در کشور ما غالبا ناشی از چهار عامل اصلی تکیه و تمرکز اقتصاد ایران بر نفت، رشد شدید قیمت ارز در یک بازه زمانی کوتاه، رشد نقدینگی و همچنین تضعیف تولید به تبع رشد هزینههای تولید است. در این میان با توجه به اینکه شاخص قیمت بهای کالا و خدمات مصرفی و نوسان نرخ آن با تغییر سیاستهای پولی، به دلیل ساختار ویژە روابط اقتصادی داخلی از مهمترین عوامل تعیین کننده توسعه اقتصادی کشور است، بررسی تاثیر نرخ تورم بر بخشهای مختلف اقتصاد به ویژه بازار سرمایه که نشاندهنده رشد فعالیتهای اقتصادی کشور است، اهمیت بسیاری دارد. در این خصوص یک کارشناس بازار سرمایه اظهار داشت: واقعیت این است که صعود یا سقوط شاخص قابل پیشبینی نیست اما واقعی شدن نرخ محصولات و حذف قیمتهای دستوری در نهایت به نفع بازار سرمایه است چراکه سود شرکتها را افزایش میدهد و افزایش نرخ تورم هم قاعدتا تمایل مردم را برای سرمایهگذاری افزایش میدهد.
تاثیر افزایش نرخ تورم بر بازار سرمایه
به گزارش روزنامه «صبح امروز» مهدی سوری در گفتوگو با ایلنا درباره سیگنالی که سیاستهای جدید اقتصادی به بازار سرمایه داده، اظهار داشت: باید توجه داشته باشیم که به طور کلی افزایش نرخ تورم باعث افزایش قیمت همه داراییها و رشد بازارهای مالی میشود. در شرایط تورمی پول داغ است و افراد تمایلی برای نگه داشتن پول نقد ندارند و سرمایه گذاریها به سمتی هدایت میشود که حداقل از نرخ تورم عقب نماند.
پولهایی به صورت هیجانی وارد بازاری میشوند قابلیت این را دارند که به صورت هیجانی هم از آن بازار خارج شوند و هنوز اعتماد عمومی به بازار برنگشته که بتوان گفت پولها برای سرمایه گذاری بلند مدت به بازار برگشتهاست. روند ورود نقدینگی به بازار در زمانی که قیمتها پایین هستند مثبت است اما عاملی که میتواند این روند را تشدید کند، اعتماد مردم است
در شرایط تورمی مخارج افزایش پیدا میکند
وی افزود: اما بازدهی که از رشد نرخ تورم در بازارها برای افراد به دست میآید، معمولا با افزایش مخارج از بین میرود. در این شرایط افراد هر چند برای افزایش ثروت سرمایه گذاری میکنند اما مخارج هم در این شرایط تورمی به همان اندازه افزایش پیدا میکند و در این صورت بازدهی سرمایه قاعدتا بازده مطلوبی نیست.
نقش اعتماد مردم در سیاستهای دولتی
این کارشناس بازار سرمایه با بیان اینکه بازده، زمانی مطلوب است که از محل بهرهوری شرکتها و رشد تولید به دست بیاید، ادامه داد: سیاستهای اخیر دولت هر چند به جلوگیری از هدر رفت منابع کمک میکند اما به نحوه اجرای آن انتقادات زیادی وارد است که مهمترین آن به عدم شفافیت این سیاست برمیگردد. این سیاستها تنها در صورتی میتواند موفق باشد که مردم به سیاستگذار اعتماد داشته باشند و اعتماد مردم جلب شده باشد. وقتی مردم هیچ اطلاعی از نحوه و فرمول محاسبه نرخ یارانههای جدید ندارد و عقبه ذهنی خود، تجربه ناموفق یارانه 45 هزار و 500 تومانی را دارند، باعث میشود که مردم به این سیاستها اعتماد نداشته باشند و همراهی نکنند.
به طور کلی افزایش نرخ تورم باعث افزایش قیمت همه داراییها و رشد بازارهای مالی میشود. در شرایط تورمی پول داغ است و افراد تمایلی برای نگه داشتن پول نقد ندارند و سرمایه گذاریها به سمتی هدایت میشود که حداقل از نرخ تورم عقب نماند
بررسی تورم حاصل از حذف ارز ترجیحی بر بازار سرمایه
سوری در پاسخ به این سوال که تورم حاصل از حذف ارز ترجیحی عامل رشد شاخص خواهد شد، گفت: واقعیت این است که صعود یا سقوط شاخص قابل پیشبینی نیست اما واقعی شدن نرخ محصولات و حذف قیمتهای دستوری در نهایت به نفع بازار سرمایه است چراکه سود شرکتها را افزایش میدهد و افزایش نرخ تورم هم قاعدتا تمایل مردم را برای سرمایهگذاری افزایش میدهد.
وی با اشاره به افزایش ورود نقدینگی در بازار سرمایه اظهار داشت: در دو الی سه ماه گذشته افزایش حجم معاملات افزایش ورود نقدینگی به بازار را تایید میکند. مدتها بود که تمام تحلیلگران بازار سرمایه بر روی اینکه قیمت سهام پایین آمده، اتفاق نظر داشتند و این کاهش قیمت سهام میتواند باعث رشدی در بازار سرمایه شود.
هنوز اعتماد عمومی به بازار برنگشته است
این کارشناس بازار سرمایه افزود: در دو سال گذشته شاهد افت قیمت سهام بودیم و در این مدت بسیاری از فعالان بورس دچار ضرر شدند و در عین حال تولیدات شرکتهای بورسی افزایش یافته اما قیمت سهام بالا نرفت و تمام این موارد انتظار رشد را در بازار ایجاد کرده بود اما بر روی زمان رشد اتفاق نظر وجود نداشت و با رشد جزیی بازار سایر افراد نقدینگی وارد بازار کردند تا از این غافله عقب نمانند.
وی تاکید کرد: نکته بسیار مهم این است که پولهایی به صورت هیجانی وارد بازاری میشوند قابلیت این را دارند که به صورت هیجانی هم از آن بازار خارج شوند و هنوز اعتماد عمومی به بازار برنگشته که بتوان گفت پولها برای سرمایه گذاری بلند مدت به بازار برگشتهاست. روند ورود نقدینگی به بازار در زمانی که قیمتها پایین هستند مثبت است اما عاملی که میتواند این روند را تشدید کند، اعتماد مردم است اگر چنین اعتمادی وجود نداشته باشد هر چقدر هم که نرخ تورم افزایش یابد و افزایش نرخ نقدینگی وجود داشته باشد به محض اینکه بازار دیگری ظاهر جذابتری داشته باشد، پولها به آن بازار روانه میشوند.
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