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یک سوم جمعیت ایران تا ۱۴۳۰ سالمند میشود
استاد جمعیتشناسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی با بیان اینکه یک سوم از جمعیت ایران تا سال ۱۴۳۰ در سنین سالمندی قرار میگیرد، گفت: اکنون باید از فرصت پنجره جمعیتی استفاده شود.
محمود مشفق در گفت وگو با خبرنگار اجتماعی ایرنا با اشاره به تحولات جمعیتی در کشور افزود: نرخ رشد جمعیت برابر با ۰.۸ درصد بوده و پیشبینی شده است؛ این نرخ رشد تا سال ۱۴۱۵ به حدود ۰.۳ درصد کاهش یابد. دلیل کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیت را نیز میتوان دو عامل تداوم باروری زیر سطح جانشینی و انباشتگی تدریجی جمعیت در سنین سالمندی برشمرد.
وی توضیح داد: به طور کلی ساختار سنی جمعیت در حال تغییر و تحول است؛ به این معنا که حجم جمعیت گروههای زیر ۱۵ سال رو به کاهش و در مقابل جمعیت میانسال و سالمند کشور در حال افزایش است. اکنون تعداد زیادی از جمعیت ایران در سن کار و فعالیت و نیروی ارزشمندی برای تحرک اقتصادی، اشتغال و تولید دانش بنیان محسوب میشوند.
مشفق ادامه داد: براساس سرشماریها و نتایج گزارشهای مراکز آمار نیز ۱۰ درصد از جمعیت کشور، ۶۰ سال به بالا و ۶ درصد ۶۵ ساله و بیشتر است؛ (براساس آخرین سرشماری سال ۱۳۹۵) پیشبینیها حاکی است که تا سال ۱۴۳۰ جمعیت ۶۵ سال به بالا در جامعه ایران به حدود ۲۳ درصد از جمعیت کل کشور رسیده و این یعنی یک سوم جمعیت ایران تا سال ۱۴۳۰ سالمند خواهد بود.
این استاد جمعیتشناسی با بیان اینکه براساس معیار درصد جمعیت ۶۵ ساله و بیشتر، نزدیک به یک چهارم از جمعیت ایران در سنین بالای ۶۵ سال قرار خواهد گرفت، افزود: از منظر میزان باروری نیز اکنون میزان باروری کل کشور زیر سطح جانشینی است و با وجود تغییر جهت سیاستهای جمعیتی تغییر چشمگیری در نرخ زاد و ولد مشاهده نمیشود.
مشفق با اشاره به تداوم روند باروری در ایران تاکید کرد: ادامه این وضعیت از یک طرف سبب افزایش جمعیت سالمند و از طرف دیگر موجب کاهش ورودیهای جمعیتی در سن کار شده و این مساله عدم تعادل در ساختار جمعیتی کشور را به دنبال خواهد داشت.
وی تصریح کرد: شرایط اقتصادی کشور نیز فرصت استفاده از پنجره جمعیتی را کاهش داده و ظرفیتهای اقتصادی موثر برای بهرهبرداری از این فرصت را محدود کرده است؛ همچنین شرایط حیات و بقای خانواده از نظر تامین نیازهای زیستی با مشکل روبرو است.
این تحلیلگر مسائل جمعیت با اشاره به ۲ راهکار اظهارداشت: با توجه به ضرورتهای زیستی و کارکردی خانواده، زیر ساخت اقتصادی این نهاد مهم اجتماعی باید مهیا شود؛ عدم توجه به نیازهای اساسی و زیرساختی و پرداختن به مسائل آرمانی مشکلآفرین خواهد شد همچنین دشواریهای اقتصادی بر پایداری ساختار خانواده هم تاثیر گذاشته است.
مشفق با تاکید بر ضرورت استفاده از فرصت پنجره جمعیتی در کشور افزود: از طریق ایجاد فرصتهای شغلی مناسب و آموزشهای کیفی برای اشتغالزایی سریع میتوان از این فرصت استفاده کرد. مقام معظم رهبری شعار سال ۱۴۰۱ را تولید، دانش بنیان و اشتغال نامگذاری فرمودند و تنها راه استفاده از پنجره جمعیتی عملی کردن همین شعار است بنابراین مسئولان باید اهمیت این شعار را در عمل درک کنند.
وی تاکید کرد: بهبود بنیانهای تولید ملی نه تنها مشکلات اقتصادی کشور را حل میکند که مساله بیکاری را نیز برطرف و موجبات استفاده از مهمترین ظرفیت کشور یعنی نیروی کار واقع در پنجره جمعیتی را نیز فراهم خواهد کرد.
استاد جمعیتشناسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی افزود: باید از این فرصت برای حمایت از خانواده بهره گرفته و در صورت غفلت از این دو رویکرد، فرصت پنجره جمعیتی از بین خواهد رفت و بیشک وضعیت جمعیتی ایران در سالهای آتی به مراتب وخیمتر خواهد شد.
به گزارش ایرنا، یک جامعه با حداقل ۷۰ درصد از جمعیت در بازه سنی ۱۵ تا ۶۴ سال (سنین کار و فعالیت) اصطلاحا در فرصت پنجره جمعیت تعریف میشود. به عبارت دیگر پنجره جمعیت فرصتی برای اصلاح ساختارهای جمعیتی، رشد و پیشرفت علمی و اقتصادی است که در صورت عدم استفاده میتواند خود به یک تهدید بدل شود.
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