صبح امروز اثرات حذف ارز ترجیحی بر دارو را بررسی میکند؛
افزایش سود ریالی شرکتهای داروئی در بورس
مهناز اصغری
به طور معمول حذف ارز ترجیحی از صنایع به عنوان خبری مثبت برای شرکت های بورسی صنایع مربوطه تلقی میشود، چراکه به یکباره روند تولید و فروش شرکتها افزایش پیدا می کند و آنها دیگر درگیر دریافت ارز و خرید ماده اولیه از طریق آن ارز نخواهند شد. در این میان اما هرچند دولت هنوز زیر ساخت مشخصی برای پشتیبانی از مصرف کننده دارو و حذف ارز ترجیحی از این صنعت ارائه نکرده و همچنان این موضوع با ابهاماتی رو به رو است اما به عقیده کارشناسان بازار سرمایه اگر دولت در سال جاری ارز ترجیحی را به طور کامل از صنعت دارو حذف کند، باعث افزایش سود ریالی شرکتهای این صنعت در بورس میشود که در نهایت منجر به افزایش بازدهی برای سهامداران و مثبت شدن شاخص این صنعت خواهد شد.
اثرات حذف ترجیحی در کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت
در این خصوص یک کارشناس بازار سرمایه در گفتگو با «صبح امروز» مطرح میکند: اثر حذف ارز ترجیحی بر بازار سرمایه هم کوتاه مدت و هم بلندمدت است. بدان معنا که در لایه کوتاه مدت سطحی حذف ارز 4200 به افزایش قیمت یک کالا منجر و بالتبع سودآوری افزایش پیدا میکند. اما در لایه عمیق و به عبارتب بلندمدت با کاهش تقاضا مواجه هستیم و درست است که سود شرکتها افزایش پیدا میکند اما ممکن است با کاهش مصرف از سوی مصرفکننده نیز مواجه شویم. اما این موضوع در خصوص دارو صدق نمیکند. چراکه دارو جزو کالاهایی نیست که تقاضای کاذب داشته باشد
ابراهیم امینی میگوید: از آنجایی که تنوع شرکتهای بورسی در صنعت دارو، زیاد است، نمیتوان وضعیت یکسانی را در صورت حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی برای آنها درنظر گرفت. اما تا پیش از این 31نماد دارویی در بازار سرمایه وجود داشت که موضوع تخصیص یا حذف ارز ترجیحی بر سهام انها اثرگذار بود.
عمده شرکت های دارویی منتفع میشوند
وی با اشاره به اینکه «در خصوص حذف ارز 4200، عمده شرکتهای مرتبط با صنعت دارو، میتوانند از این موضوع منتفع شوند» ادامخه میدهد: حذف ارز ترجیحی بر بهای تمام شده سهام شرکتهای دارویی تاثیرگذار است و با این اتفاق زمینه افزایش بهای تمام شده فراهم میشود. اما موضوع این است که ا گر همسو با بهای تمام شده محصولات نرخ فروش آنها افزایش پیدا نکند سودآوری شرکتها نزولی میشود و این امر منجر به ایجاد ضرر و زیانها شرکتها خواهد شد.
این کارشناس بازار سرمایه تاکید میکند: بنابراین اگر قرار باشد حذف ارز ترجیحی منجر به افزایش بهای تمام شده شرکتها شود این حاشیه سود به صورت ریالی افزایش سودآوری را برای شرکتها به همراه دارد و این شرکتها میتوانند در بازار سرمایه مورد تقاضا قرار بگیرند. در نهایت باید دید نظام قیمتگذاری دولت به چه صورت خواهد بود، یعنی آیا حاشیه سودی که تاکنون بوده، حفظ خواهد شد یا حاشیه سود قرار است کاهش پیدا کند.
امینی: از آنجایی که تنوع شرکتهای بورسی در صنعت دارو، زیاد است، نمیتوان وضعیت یکسانی را در صورت حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی برای آنها درنظر گرفت
ارز 4200 غیرکارشناسی بود
وی در پایان بندی صحبت های خود ابراز میکند: اجرای طرح ارز ۴۲۰۰ از ابتدای امر اقدام نادرست و کارشناسانهای نبود و مشکلات اقتصادی زیادی برای کشور بههمراه داشت و باعث فساد هم شد. از اول نباید این اتفاق پایهریزی میشد اما اکنون حذف این ارز تبعات تورمی سنگینی برای کشور دارد؛ بهخصوص برای دهکهای درآمدی پایین این تبعات بیشتر خواهد بود و فشار بالایی به آنان تحمیل میشود.
سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی پلکانی ادامه دارد
همچنین یک کارشناس بازار سرمایه در گفتگو با باشگاه خبرنگاران جوان تاکید میکند: تاکنون ارز ترجیحی تعدادی از نمادهای دارویی در بورس همچون درهاورد، دکپسول، دفرا و دقاضی حذف شده است. دولت تاکنون به صورت پلکانی ارز مواد بستهبندی را حذف و به ارز مکملهای غذایی و در نهایت به تعدادی از داروها پرداخته است. دولت سیاست حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ را در دستور کار خود قرار داده که به نظر من همچنان به سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی پلکانی خود ادامه خواهد داد.
مهدی تودوئی میگوید: صنعت دارویی با ریسک نقدینگی مواجه است که با حذف ارز ترجیحی شرکتهای تولید کننده نیاز بسیاری به سرمایه در گردش دارند. این موضوع مستلزم این است که دولت به این شرکتها تسهیلات کم بهره بدهد.
تودوئی: صنعت دارویی با ریسک نقدینگی مواجه است که با حذف ارز ترجیحی شرکتهای تولید کننده نیاز بسیاری به سرمایه در گردش دارند. این موضوع مستلزم این است که دولت به این شرکتها تسهیلات کم بهره بدهد
نوسانات ارزی میتواند به ضرر شرکتها تمام شود
وی میافزاید: همچنین ریسک دیگر این صنعت، نوسانات نرخ ارز است. به علت اینکه بخشی از مواد اولیه صنعت دارو کشور از کشورهای چین و هندوستان تامین میشود و نوسانات ارزی میتواند به ضرر شرکتها تمام شود. ریسک دیگر تاثیر عوامل خارجی است. هم اکنون به علت تحریم، شرکتها نمیتوانند واردات مواد اولیه را به راحتی انجام دهند و شرکتها با مشکل مواجه میشوند.
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