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سرویس اقتصاد | این روزها بحث حذف ارز ترجیحی و جایگزینی با یارانه نقدی یا کالابرگ الکترونیک مهم ترین سرخط اخبار اقتصادی شده است. در این میان نیز روز گذشته حبیب اللله دهمرده، یک عضو کمیسیون تلفیق بودجه مطرح کرد: « من با اصل موضوع حذف ارز ترجیحی موافق هستم و باید این سیاست کنار گذاشته می شد تا به مشکلاتی همچون فساد و رانت پایان دهیم. اما باید در عرصه ی اجرا ملاحظاتی را مدنظر داشته باشیم تا برنامه به درستی اجرا شود و به هدفش دست یابد. به طور مثال میتوان میزان یارانه را کمی نیز افزایش داد.» هرچند بد نیست اشاره ای داشته باشیم که در روزهای اخیر برخی به این موضوع اشاره کردند که بر اساس محاسبات و با توجه به منابع موجود در تبصره ۱۴ قانون بودجه، امکان افزایش یارانه نقدی همه افراد تا ۵۰۰ هزار تومان وجود دارد.
به گزارش روزنامه «صبح امروز» با توجه به اینکه سیاست ارز چند نرخی در سال های اخیر بر پیکره اقتصاد کشور اثرگذار بود، تصمیم دولت و مجلس بر آن شد که با حذف آن اصلاحاتی در این نظام اقتصادی انجام دهند. در این بین این طرح همواره مخالف و موافقانی داشته که هرکدام برای خود دلایل موجه خود را دارند. در آخرین اظهارنظر نیز یک کارشناس اقتصادی موافق طرح هدفمندی یارانه ها گفت: افزایش قیمت کالاها با وجود تخصیص ارز ترجیحی به واردکنندگان از جمله دلایل اصلاح نظام یارانه ای بود.
به گزارش روزنامه «صبح امروز» موسی شهبازی در گفتگو با ایسنا درباره اصلاح نظام یارانه ای و پیامدهای اجرا نشدن آن اظهار کرد: ما در شرایطی قرار گرفته بودیم که از فروردین سال ۱۳۹۷ به بعد، اختصاص ارز ترجیحی تبعات جبران ناپذیری به همراه داشت و در حال تشدید شدن بود.
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وی با بیان اینکه ما ذخایر ارزی کشور را عملا با قیمت پایین ارز ترجیحی به وارد کننده اختصاص می دادیم افزود: در واقع منابع ارزی را در شرایط تحریمی و در اوضاعی که ذخایر ارزی بسیار حیاتی است، در سالهای ۱۳۹۷ و ۱۳۹۸ به شدت هدر می دادیم. در ابتدا (۱۳۹۷) هر وارداتی انجام شد که بعدها مورد اولویت بندی قرار گرفت. اما باز هم در یکی دو سال اخیر با وجود اولویت بندی کالاها، اطمینان لازم وجود نداشت که ارز ترجیحی اختصاص داده شده به وارد کننده، اهداف در نظر گرفته شده را محقق می کند یا خیر.
این کارشناس اقتصادی افزایش قیمت مستمر کالاها در شرایط اختصاص ارز ترجیحی را یکی از تبعات منفی ادامه روند قبلی دانست و گفت: به عبارتی ما هم منابع ارزی ارزان ارائه می کردیم و هم قیمت کالاها گران می شد.
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شهبازی در ادامه سخنانش اظهار کرد: نکته دیگری که وجود دارد، تفاوت قیمت و رانت ایجاد شده بود که سبب ارسال رسمی و غیررسمی کالاهای یارانه دار در قالب صادرات و قاچاق به کشورهای همسایه، مصرف بی رویه و … می شد.
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این کارشناس اقتصادی با بیان اینکه درآمدهای ارزی کشور طی سالها کاهش پیدا کرده بود، ادامه داد: به طور مثال درآمدهای نفتی روبه کاهش اما از سوی دیگر قیمتهای جهانی هم در حال افزایش بود. ما درآمد ارزی کافی برای تأمین ۲۰میلیارد دلار واردات کالاهای اساسی و نهاده ها نداشتیم؛ بنابراین باید از ذخایر بانک مرکزی و صندوق توسعه ملی برداشت می کردیم که این موضوع هم با توجه به منابع ارزی موجود امکان پذیر نبود. مجموع همه این شرایط دست به دست هم دادند تا ضرورت اصلاح این سیاست بر کسی پوشیده نباشد.
شهبازی با تاکید بر اهمیت روش اجرای این طرح خاطرنشان کرد: به طور حتم درمورد روش اجرا، حمایت از خانوارها و بنگاه ها نکاتی وجود دارد که ضامن اجرای موفقیت آمیز آن خواهد بود و در غیر این صورت ممکن است مشکلاتی به همراه داشته باشد.
وی در پاسخ به این سوال که آیا اجرای غیرتدریجی اصلاح نظام یارانه ای در شرایط فعلی اقدام درستی بود اظهار کرد: منابع ارزی کشور در سال ۱۴۰۱ افزایش چشمگیری نداشته و از سوی دیگر افزایش قیمت نهاده ها در بازار جهانی اتفاق افتاده بود و ما عملا منابع ارزی کافی برای واردات نهاده ها نداشتیم؛ بنابراین چاره ای جز اجرای ضربتی این طرح وجود نداشت.
انتظار داریم دهکهای پایین درآمدی منتفع شوند
این کارشناس اقتصادی ادامه داد: ضمن اینکه در دولت قبل مطرح شد که ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی فساد و رانت به همراه داشته و منافع آن به مردم نرسیده است؛ زیرا مصرف دهکهای پایین جامعه در طول سالهای ارائه ارز ترجیحی در زمینه گوشت، مرغ، تخم مرغ و سایر کالاهای اساسی به شدت کاهش پیدا کرده بود و عملا این قشر قدرت خرید این کالاها را نداشتند. برای اجرای سیاستهای حمایتی درست باید یارانه واردات را به زنجیره مصرف کننده می دادیم که الان هم همین اتفاق افتاده است.
وی با بیان اینکه ادامه اجرای سیاست قبلی برای دهکهای پایین، مخارج آنها را با توجه به مصرفی که داشتند افزایش می داد، تشریح کرد: انتظار ما این است که با اصلاح صورت گرفته، به ویژه دهکهای پایین درآمدی منتفع شوند؛ لذا می توان گفت که اجرای این طرح ضرورت داشته است.
در سایر کشورها مگر همه قیمتها جهانی است؟
درمقابل این قبیل اظهارنظرات نیز برخی کارشناسان اقتصادی بر این باور هستند که «باید یارانهها در قالب همان ارز ۴۲۰۰تومانی با نظارت بیشتر توزیع میشد.» به طور نمونه آلبرت بغزیان، مدرس دانشگاه در گفتگو با ایلنا مطرح کرده بود: گفته میشود که علت پرداخت یارانه پرکردن فاصله قیمتهای داخلی و جهانی است. من این جمله را جز در ایران، در هیچ یک کشورهای جهان نشنیدم. پاسخ ما همواره به کسانی که میگفتند قیمتها باید جهانی شود میگفتیم که اولا در سایر کشورها مگر همه قیمتها جهانی است؟ و دوم اینکه اگر قرار است اقلام مصرفی جهانی محاسبه شود، دریافتیها و ورودی جیب مردم نیز باید جهانی محاسبه شود. بهنظر من این گونه اظهارنظر بیشتر مانند سرودن یک شعر قدیمی و کلاسیک با تنها یک مصراع، و فراموش کردن مصراع دوم است!
این کارشناس اقتصادی با بیان اینکه «آمریکا و کانادا و اروپا نیز به بسیاری از کالاها یارانه میدهند اما هیچ کالای یارانهای از مرز آنها عبور نمیکند» افزود: ما نمیخواهیم مرزهای خود را در مقابل قاچاق حفظ کنیم. وقتی افزایش قیمتها به کسری بودجه مضاعف تبدیل شود، دوباره شاهد فاصله قیمتهای داخل و خارج میشویم و در ادامه دوباره قاچاق پابرجای خواهد بود. اگر مبارزه با قاچاق کالای غیریارانهای مثل مواد مخدر موفق بود، مبارزه با قاچاق کالاهایی که یارانه آنها حذف شده است نیز موفق خواهد بود.
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